Futures Point To A Technical Bounce
INTEREST RATES
The Treasury market flashed higher Monday and
deserved to rally, as the macro economic outlook for the US and world recovery
is deteriorating. The fact that energy prices are soaring, insurgents in Iraq
might have access to weapons of mass destruction and the fact that the US
economic report slate is thin, all seemed to contribute to the short covering
mode in the Treasury market. Surprisingly the Empire State Manufacturing Index
Monday morning, showed a decline and that also played right into the short
covering mode.
STOCK INDICES
Overnight traders finally came to the conclusion
that price declines have over exaggerated the economic conditions confronting
the market. Certainly the prospect that soaring energy prices will derail the
recovery remain in place but one might also take some confidence in the fact
that higher energy prices might be doing some of the heavy lifting for the Fed.
Overnight the Japanese managed to post an impressively strong GDP reading and
that seemed to reinvigorate sentiment slightly.
DOW
A pattern of lower lows and lower highs seems to leave favor with the bear camp.
However, it should be noted that overnight sentiment seems to have accepted that
prices have gotten a little ahead of reality with recent declines! Unfortunately
many Dow companies are seeing the negative impact of rising energy prices and
until that situation changes dramatically, the most one can expect is temporary
short covering bounces, followed by even more downside follow through. Critical
resistance comes in at 9,983, with close-in support seen at 9,914.
S&P
So far, the June S&P has managed to respect the classical bottom formation from
last week. However, the geopolitical outlook remains disconcerting and could be
difficult to improve. In our opinion, the market might see a minor bounce today
but unless the June manages to rise above 1102.50, the near term trend remains
down. It goes without saying that another trip below 1081.50, probably means a
retest of the classic bottom down at 1075. The problem for the bull camp is that
so many things need to be fixed, for the market to permanently shake off the
selling tide!
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
US DOLLAR
While the Dollar has managed a slight bounce off the
spike low from yesterday, it remains on the ropes. In fact, we think that the
Dollar needs the combination of ultra strong economic growth and the threat of
higher interest rates in order to return to the bull track. However, the US
economic report slate is thin and the reports due out today are expected to be
soft. We also have to wonder if the US Dollar can expect to see an improvement
in the geopolitical headline flow, as almost every development seems to come out
negative. Critical failure points in the June Dollar come in at 91.00 and then
again down at 90.50. Even soaring energy prices are seen as a problem for the US
and are not thought to be as big of a problem for other countries, which is
surprising because OPEC prices a large portion of their sales in Dollars. In the
mean time, the bears seem to have a slight edge.
EURO
Overnight the Euro zone posted somewhat hot CPI
readings for April +0.4%, but the German ZEW Survey showed expectations to have
declined sharply. In other words, the Euro continues to get the benefit of the
doubt on its economy and is periodically seeing the benefit of the negative
undertow in the US! Therefore, the Euro deserved to bounce off the recent low,
but simply doesn’t have the fundamentals to break out of the down trend channel,
that has been in place since the February high. In order to come out of the down
trend pattern, we would have to see much improved Euro zone numbers or
significantly worse US numbers. Traders should sell the top of the down trend
channel up at 1.2120 today and 1.2110 on Wednesday.
YEN
A very strong Japanese GDP reading overnight at
least gives the bear camp something to worry about. However, we are not sure
that the trend in the Yen is ready to shift to the upside. The annualized
Japanese GDP reading for the October through December period came in at 6.9% and
that is certainly an argument for a slowing of the downside slide in the Yen.
However, in order to turn the trend back up in the Yen, it needs to forge a
close back above 88.75.
^next^
SWISS
The recent rise in the Swiss should put the currency
right into a critical pivot zone. Certainly the trend could be preparing to
shift up, but until we see justification for that reversal, we will continue to
attack the currency from the short side. In fact, until there is a close above
78.60 we would suggest that nothing has changed.
BRITISH POUND
The Pound hardly made a fleeting bounce in the last
few sessions in the wake of the significant Dollar slide and that really favors
the bear camp. While the UK CPI was right up there with the Euro zone at +0.4%,
we just don’t see the fundamental track to reverse the down trend pattern. In
fact, until the June Pound manages a close above 176.98 we assume that the trend
is pointing down.
CANADIAN DOLLAR
While the Canadian managed an aggressive bounce,
none of that bounce held and the currency is right back on the verge of fresh
contract lows this morning. Therefore, the path of least resistance is down.
Hopefully you bought those 71 Canadian puts on our suggestion yesterday, hold
those puts for Canadian slide to 70.60.
METALS
OVERNIGHT
London A.M. Gold Fix $379.00 -$1.80 LME
COPPER STOCKS 144,725 mt tons -1,225 tns COMEX Gold stocks 4.272 ml +4,628 oz
Comex Silver stocks 120.2 ml -484,856 OZ
GOLD
At times the gold market seems to get a lift from
flight to quality and at other times it simply loses its buying interest. In any
regard, long interest isn’t consistent and the focal point continues to be on
the direction of the Dollar. So far, extreme declines in world equity prices
have not given gold direct support and at times it seems like weak equity prices
are undermining gold, as if there is a fear that deflation might return in the
months ahead.
SILVER
While silver has managed to retain gains off
critical support at $5.50, it does not seem like silver has upside momentum.
Like gold, silver would have to manage a climb above a down trend channel line
at $5.95. Also like gold, we see silver occasionally undermined by concerns for
the recovery.
PLATINUM
The platinum market certainly showed impressive long
side interest with a $60 move off the recent low. However, after the big rally
the market appears to have lost momentum and might be prepared to fall back into
the $780 to $800 consolidation pattern in the coming sessions. The higher
interest rate threat seemed to be behind the slide in platinum in early May, but
as the threat of higher rates abated, prices seem to have recovered again.
COPPER
The copper market fell to our sub 114 objective
quicker than we expected but considering the negatives facing copper in the near
term, we suspect that even more downside is ahead. In addition to extreme
weakness in equity prices, the killing of a top official in Iraq and soaring
energy prices, the copper market is also confronted with more tightening threats
from the Bank of China. Chinese officials apparently suggested that they may be
forced to hike interest rates (in addition to the recent loan tightening move)
if Consumer prices continue to spiral out of control.
CRUDE COMPLEX
The energy complex managed to post new highs
again Monday but it is clear that the technical condition of the market is
becoming over extended. With Iran suggesting that the upcoming 1.5 million
barrel per day production hike would be a cooperative effort, it is clear that
Saudi Arabia isn’t the only OPEC producer with additional productive capacity,
as many in the market had feared. However, it should also be noted that OPEC
thinks that more oil flow won’t necessarily solve the high price dilemma, as
geopolitical elements and insufficient US refinery capacity are the main reasons
behind the stellar rise in energy prices.
NATURAL GAS
One can see from the lows posted Monday in July
natural gas that the natural gas market is finding it difficult to hold lofty
prices without constant support from crude oil. While more seasonal cooling use
is expected in the weeks ahead, it would seem like the domestic supply issue is
a slight hindrance to higher natural gas prices. In fact, because of the supply
situation it is possible that natural gas will over react to the next move in
crude oil, especially if that move is to the downside.