Futures Point To A Stronger Open
INTEREST RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS -2 The rally in Treasuries was quite surprising
Monday and with the soft leading indicator reading it would seem that the gains
were justified. We have to think that the overly short small spec and fund
positioning combined with some light central bank buying to drive December bonds
above close-in resistance. With the Yen down so aggressively Monday, it seemed
by the BOJ was intervening against the currency and that would seem to imply
some central bank buying of bonds.
STOCK INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM:S&P+150 DOW +7 NIKKEI -130 FTSE +24 Even with private
sources suggesting that corporate earnings have come in about 7% above
expectations, the market doesn’t seem to be in a solid bull posture. Maybe the
market simply factored in the favorable earnings in the September and early
October rally and the market is now in the process of consolidating the results
and in the process balancing its technical overbought condition. Texas
Instruments prices are up strong overnight due to earnings and sales projections
but it is clear that most of Wall Street is discounting earnings because many
think that aggressive cost cutting is driving the positive earnings flow instead
of rising sales.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURO:
Critical chart support in the Euro comes in at 115.83. However, considering some
extremely negative economic forecasts from Germany overnight, it would seem like
money will avoid the Euro in the near term. In fact, 6 institutes in Germany
suggested overnight that 2003 will not see any positive growth and that is
certainly the type of story that discourages investment in the long side of the
Euro.
YEN: We
think that the BOJ was involved in the action yesterday, as the Yen at times
appeared to be ready to breakout to the downside. In fact, the overnight action
has the same negative chart bias and a slide to 90.00 wouldn’t seem to be out of
the question in the near term. Crude steel output in Japan reportedly fell in
September, suggesting that heavy industry in Japan is still struggling and that
is simply fodder for a lower Yen in the coming sessions.
SWISS:
While the Swiss would seem to have solid support just under the market at 74.80,
the bias of the trade appears to be down. However, with the US economic report
slate empty, we doubt that the Swiss will violate support today.
POUND: On
a correction to 166.10, we would buy the Pound for a return to the recent highs
of 167.50 and perhaps a new higher trading range. However, some partially
disappointing information from the CBI overnight, could mean that the Pound
fades moderately before finding a near term bottom.
CANADIAN
DOLLAR: Trend line support today comes in at 75.01, but we suspect that the
December contract will manage to hold above 75.33 for most of the session. The
trend is up, look to buy 20 to 30 point corrections. +
METALS
GOLD:
Seeing December gold climb above $375.7 this morning could prompt some short
covering and possibly a rise to $377.4. However, according to a story in Dow
Jones the President of the Bombay Bullion Association has suggested that Indian
demand for gold in the coming wedding season is expected to be 50% lower,
because of high prices. In addition to high prices the article also suggested
that demand at the retail level in India was sluggish.
SILVER:
Part of the large COMEX silver stock increases from Friday night were reversed
overnight and that leaves the silver market in a position to play off the
slightly impressive performance of prices on Monday. Like gold, we are not sure
what the theme of the bull camp is focused on, because the recovery pace isn’t
catching a lot of headlines and the Dollar seems to be mired in a range.
Therefore, silver seems to be marching to its own tune and with the breakout up
yesterday on the charts, one has to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.
PLATINUM:
With prices going to another new high, the corrective potential in platinum is
erased. Apparently Far East demand is supporting platinum, with Japanese jewelry
demand consistently prompting the market to higher levels. The soaring Yen has
certainly served to deflate the rising flat price of platinum. The inability to
expand supply in the face of rising demand apparently leaves platinum in an
upward price pattern.Â
The fact
that September Chinese copper concentrate imports increased by 18% on the year
gets right to the heart of the bull market in COPPER: copper. While prices
periodically appear as if they have gotten ahead of themselves, the relatively
lower Dollar value is giving US copper an edge against LME copper. While the
market is showing a hard correction overnight we suspect that solid support will
be found down at 90.20 in the December contract.
CRUDE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM  :CRUDE +15 ,HEAT+94 ,UNGAS+44 Just as the bear camp seems
to be garnering a foothold in the marketplace, a private forecast predicts a
substantial decline in energy prices! According to an Oppenheimer energy analyst
oil prices could decline by as much as 20%, “if there are no supply disruptions”
and there is a “mild winter”. In other words, the 20% decline forecast is a
best-case scenario for the economy.
NATURAL GAS
Record
warmth certainly made the cold winter bulls question their positions. With more
above average temps projected and the potential for more weakness in crude oil,
we have to think that the path of least resistance is still down.