If You Trade The Semis, Watch These Four Levels
What Thursday’s Action Tells
You
After the first ninety minutes down, it was
trend
up for the major indices. The 11:00 a.m. ET time period was the start of
both
Wednesday and Thursday’s rallies. On Wednesday, there was the 3:30 p.m.
mystery
pop into the close on good volume for the
(
SPY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), and they ran it again
today
starting on the 3:00 p.m. bar. For the past seven days, most of the trading
has
been rangebound between 1054 – 1044 (give or take a few pennies). I have
included the SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 60-minute chart in today’s commentary where
you’ll see that since Oct. 29, price only traded out of that range for 10
hours
until yesterday’s late breakout of the range for the second time and a
decent
long entry in the futures or the SPY if you monitored your 60-minute chart.
The TRIN ended at .74, down from the 1.50 zone,
at 10:30 a.m. The Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) made another new absolute and closing
high yesterday of 1976, +0.9%, as did the
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s 35.95, +0.3%. The SPX,
1058.05 and +0.6%, closed in the top 10% of its range, while the Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
was +0.4%. Both the SPY and
(
DIA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s made new closing highs. Total volume
of 1.42 billion was the most so far this week, and the volume ratio 65 with
the four-day moving average at 57. Breadth made a good turnaround from about
-355 in the morning to end at +545, with a four-day moving average of +491.
| size=2> | size=2>Friday
10/31 |
size=2>Monday
11/3 |
size=2>Tuesday |
size=2>Wednesday
11/5 |
Thursday
11/6 |
| color=#0000ff>Index | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SPX | |||||
| color=#0000ff>High | 1053.09 | 1061.44 | 1059.02 | 1054.54 | 1058.94 |
| color=#0000ff>Low | 1046.94 | 1051.84 | 1051.70 | 1044.88 | 1046.93 |
| color=#0000ff>Close | 1050.71 | 1059.02 | 1053.25 | 1051.81 | 1058.05 |
| color=#0000ff>% | +0.4 | +0.8 | -0.5 | -0.1 | +0.6 |
| color=#0000ff>Range | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 12 |
| color=#0000ff>% Range | 62 | 78 | 21 | 71 | 93 |
| color=#0000ff>INDU | 9801 | 9858 | 9839 | 9821 | 9857 |
| color=#0000ff>% | +0.2 | +0.6 | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.4 |
| color=#0000ff>NASDAQ | 1932 | 1968 | 1958 | 1959 | 1976 |
| color=#0000ff>% | -.02 | +1.8 | -0.5 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| color=#0000ff>QQQ | 35.15 | 35.77 | 35.55 | 35.83 | 35.95 |
| color=#0000ff>% | -0.7 | +1.7 | -0.6 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| color=#0000ff>NYSE | |||||
| color=#0000ff>T. VOL | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.42 |
| color=#0000ff>U. VOL | 763 | 1.02 | 485 | 679 | 908 |
| color=#0000ff>D. VOL | 654 | 318 | 836 | 657 | 494 |
| color=#0000ff>VR | 54 | 76 | 37 | 51 | 65 |
| color=#0000ff>4 MA | 62 | 62 | 54 | 54 | 57 |
| color=#0000ff>5 RSI | 69 | 78 | 62 | 59 | 69 |
| color=#0000ff>ADV | 1792 | 2270 | 1677 | 1637 | 1893 |
| color=#0000ff>DEC | 1418 | 984 | 1591 | 1590 | 1348 |
| color=#0000ff>A-D | +374 | +1286 | +86 | +47 | +545 |
| color=#0000ff>4 MA | +617 | +614 | +440 | +448 | +491 |
| color=#0000ff>SECTORS | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SMH | -0.5 | +3.8 | 0 | +1.8 | +0.5 |
| color=#0000ff>BKX | +0.2 | +1.0 | -0.2 | -.02 | +0.6 |
| color=#0000ff>XBD | +0.5 | +1.5 | -0.7 | -0.7 | +0.5 |
| color=#0000ff>RTH | +0.1 | +1.2 | -0.8 | -0.8 | +1.0 |
| color=#0000ff>CYC | 0 | +1.0 | +0.2 | -0.4 | +0.7 |
| color=#0000ff>PPH | +1 | -0.1 | -1.3 | +0.2 | +0.6 |
| color=#0000ff>OIH | +2.4 | -2.0 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| color=#0000ff>BBH | +0.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| color=#0000ff>TLT | +0.9 | -0.5 | +0.6 | -0.7 | -1.0 |
| color=#0000ff>XAU | +0.5 | -2.1 | +0.8 | +.02 | -1.9 |
All of the major sectors were up in line with the
SPX, with the RTH +1.0% and BBH +1.1%. Bonds continue to trade down, as the
(
TLT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), which is the long bond proxy, was -1.0%, and as the recovery theme
strengthens as per the daily news, gold (XAU) declined -1.9%. All in all it
was a nice turnaround yesterday, but more downside is needed to digest the gains
and set the table for any further upside past the 1050 – 1100 zone SPX.
For Active
Traders
In the early trading yesterday, the
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s
and QQQs gave up all of that late spike rally on Wednesday afternoon. The
SMH
went flat until 12:30 p.m. and started to rise on light volume till about
1:45
p.m. when the volume picked up. It was another new high on about 20% below
its
average daily volume yesterday.
The SMH has entered another confluence zone
which
has four different Fib extension levels: 44.19, 44.29, 44.68 and 44.85,
right
here with the SMH daily range yesterday between the 43.28 low after the
early
down to the intraday high of 44.30 and closing at 44.15.
For Today
I am doing this Thursday night for Friday, so
I
have no futures picture. In the absence of any overt news through the 9:30
a.m.
opening, it should be no surprise if they try to take them higher early on,
which would set up Trap Doors, and if enough enthusiasm, volatility band
level
setups right in the middle of the SPX confluence zone closer to that 1068
level.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
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