Futures Point To A Weaker Open
INTEREST RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to  4:15 AM :BONDS -2 After seeing the Challenger layoff report one gets
a little more sense of why the Treasury market has been able to stand up against
the flow of strengthening US numbers. In other words, even the slightest whiff
of weakness in anything related to the jobs sector, results in the bull camp
rushing into the bond market. While we don’t discount the favorable economic
readings that have been posted since the middle of last week, the Challenger
report certainly gives the bull camp an edge into the payroll report Friday
morning.
STOCK INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to 4:15 AM:S&P-370 DOW -27Â NIKKEI -10.4 FTSE -37Â The market gave up the
bull track too easily on Monday and now it would seem that the US economy is
going to have to prove itself again, with a series of strong economic readings.
However, it would seem that Wall Street and the mainstream Press are leaning
toward the bear camp this morning, as the early wires are playing up a slight
slackening of retail sales due to above average temps and less than anticipated
warm clothing sales. In other words, the market is searching for negatives and
is finding them.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURO: The
EU posted unchanged payroll readings but was saved by a slight up tick in
October services PMI readings. In other words, the Euro zone economy is just
strong enough to discourage selling but not strong enough or relatively strong
enough to garner investment interest over the Dollar or the Pound. In fact, the
euro has to prove to the trade that it is not in a downtrend pattern and must
hold the recent double bottom of 114.16 or risk a sharp decline down to 113.72.Â
YEN: The
Yen seems to have run out of near term buying fuel and should be considered
short term overbought in the technicals. Near term support is seen today at
90.80 and resistance is pegged at 91.55. If the US numbers don’t get better
quickly the Yen probably returns to last month’s highs before the close Friday!
SWISS:
The charts seem to suggest nothing but more downside. In fact, we would not be
surprised to see the Swiss slide to the early September consolidation of 73.00
to 72.00 in the coming three sessions. If you want to buy the Swiss, it would
seem to be wise to use calls and not futures.
POUND:
The numbers out of the UK this morning foster bullishness toward the Pound, as
the PMI employment figures rose as did the PMI services Index. If there is a
negative it is seen in the less than stellar manufacturing output for September.
We suspect that the Pound is going to be able to hold above 166.58, which is a
level that longs should consider to be a buying zone.
CANADIAN
DOLLAR: The correction should have run its course unless the US manages to shock
the trade with some stellar numbers. Use the 74.83 level as a critical pivot
point support zone and play for a bottoming.
METALS
GOLD: In
addition to the beneficial currency action yesterday, the market seems to be
picking up a little physical interest from Indian and other Asian players. We
also detected some flight to quality buying in gold Tuesday in the face of
disappointing US economic information. In other words, it would seem that recent
price weakness in gold has in fact stirred up some buying interest and that
interest is a little more diversified.
SILVER:
The moving average looms above the market at $5.08. While we were very
disappointed with the silver markets recent correlation to favorable equity
market action and the prospect of recovery, it would appear that silver finds
more support off negative economic information. For the bull camp it’s a good
thing that the market isn’t tracking supply and demand fundamentals because
supply has recently risen and silver doesn’t seem to care about the progress of
the recovery.
PLATINUM:
The platinum shut off the liquidative tilt and looks poised to return to the
recent highs. The only news of significance in platinum has been evidence that
production outside of Russian is failing to expand, as expected and auto
industry use seems to be rising. Therefore, the platinum market would appear to
be primed to make a run up to the psychologically important $800 price level. Â
The
combination of a lower Dollar and lower copper prices Tuesday morning appeared
to ignite a wave of arbitrage buying that was quickly joined by fund buying
(when the market pulled above the old high of 94.45). Therefore it COPPER: would
not seem like buyers of copper are the least bit put off by the sharp rise in
prices, which in turn would suggest that the market has more upside potential.
As we suggested Monday the next upside targeting in December copper comes in up
at 97.10.
CRUDE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to    4:15 AM  :CRUDE +5  ,HEAT+9  ,UNGAS+27 The energy complex seemed to
get a little support from slightly cooler weather but we have to think that the
weekly inventory numbers this morning will take over the focus completely.
Furthermore, we think the numbers this morning stand a better chance of
supporting the bear case than the bull case.
NATURAL GAS
Supposedly the natural gas market found support off the idea of a minor cold
front and that at least shows that buying power is still in reserve on the
sidelines. With prices showing the capacity to rise off minimal weather, the
short fund position saw a little shot across the bow.