How I Saw The Trigger
I might absolutely love a
stock, but that doesn’t mean I’m looking to take the initial breakout.
It’s a well-known technical fact that the majority
of issues (somewhere north of 70%) trade with the broader market. What this
means to me is that there is a time and place for everything–especially when it
comes to trying the classic breakout. Even though the market is in a ‘confirmed
rally’, as it has been for several months now–it is not a green light to take
every breakout that you see triggering. There are definite times within the
market cycle where, in my humble opinion, it makes common ‘cents’ to
take a wait-and-see approach. For instance, if you read
my IT report, I’ve personally gone from raging bull to cautious bull over
the past two weeks because we have quickly moved back into the testing of daily
chart resistance levels. Ultimately, that’s a good thing for bulls. Even better
for would-be bulls–at these levels–is to use a little common sense of your own
when deciding if the trigger is really there.
Case in point, in today’s trade Rofin Sinar (RSTI)
gapped higher thru daily price pattern triggers. For all intents and purposes, any
stock to be ‘had’ at the proper levels was what I like to call, ‘for friends and
family only.’ The stock was up in premarket trade, but the move on the opening
bar would have made it difficult at best to grab on to any stock near the pivot
levels.
The initial move was good to ‘some’, for nearly a
point. No use crying over missed opportunities in my book, your focus should be
on the next high-probability move. Well, and this is just
one man’s opinion–I felt the next move would be, at a minimum, a quick shaking
of the proverbial tree. Again, this probably has more to do with my focus on the
extended nature of the broader market, than anything else. If you read the
reports, you’ll get a good idea of how I felt about breakouts and trading at
this juncture.
I’m far from right on every call, but part of my
edge lies in the intuitive aspect of trading (which probably isn’t really all
that intuitive–more just a potpourri of charts, indicators, the human
element…). But, in this particular case, it served me well. The subsequent
pullback set up a
Taglia Gap entry. Like the breakout plays, the Taglia Gap is
going to perform better in conditions in which the upside is favored–no brain
surgery there. As a matter of fact, in this environment, most likely it will
work better as it is ‘more or less’ something akin to a second entry or ‘shake’,
quite often.
In today’s trade though, I went to take the
‘second entry’ one step further, by ‘playing off’ those traders and investors
that might have attempted the Taglia Gap entry. Now, a perfect entry of 28.91
would not have resulted in a stop loss trigger for Taglia entries, but the
trigger bar high of 29, did result in exactly a .50 loss (reflected on chart
below).
As far as I was concerned, I didn’t start to see
‘my edge’ until nearly ten minutes later, and that’s when our TWA, or
TradersWire Alert went up to our subscribers.
10:00:08
Intraday Setup Alert
From the Nighty
Daytraders Report, and the
Intermediate-Term Report, Rofin-Sinar (RSTI) has
triggered out of a
Taglia Gap, but quickly reversed for .50. This intraday action might provide
the ‘second opportunity’ to trade the breakout on a move above 29. RSTI is up
2.09 at 28.70 on 1.35 times average daily trade.
It wasn’t easy, and it definitely took some risk
acceptance on the part of traders who participated. But, in this lil’ guy’s
opinion–the edge was there, it just happened to be ‘outside of the box.’