4 Ways To Measure Your Performance

  • April 28, 2004
  • Chris Curran

Stock index futures opened Tuesday’s session
slightly lower after an anemic overnight Globex session.  News at
10:00 that the Consumer Confidence Index improved to 92.9 in April from 88.5 in
March while the number of Americans who said jobs were hard to get fell to its
lowest level since 11/02, and combined with robust Existing Home Sales, sparked
a strong short squeeze in equity futures and sent bond futures tumbling.  After
holding the bulk of the gains through the lunchtime lull, the market looked
poised to move higher, but news of an escalation in violence in Iraq spooked the
equity markets and spurred some movement into bonds.

The June SP
500 futures closed Tuesday’s session dead even, and finished in the lower 1/2 of
the daily range.  Volume in the ES was estimated at 515,000 contracts, lighter
than Thursday’s pace and below the daily average.  Looking at the daily chart,
the ES breached its upper channel line for the 2nd day in a row, but couldn’t
hold it and posted a doji for the day.  The contract has good MA support from
1134 to 1131, and then an air pocket down to 1121.  On an intraday basis, 60-min
and 30-min trend lines are holding so far, but we have bearish wedges forming.


June bonds
(ZB) extended Monday’s move to close above 10-day MA resistance, but are still
pinned below last Friday’s high.  The U.S. Dollar was able to settle above its
2-year downtrend line and right at its daily 200-day MA.  The Banking Index (BKX)
reversed off of the top end of its 2-week trading range to post a gravestone,
but managed to close above its 10-day MA resistance.  The Semiconductor Index
(SOX) continues to look downright sickly as it held its channel to settle right
at last week’s low.


Wednesday
is absent of any economic reports and any real market-moving earnings reports,
so the market may be held hostage to reports out of the Middle East again. I
would expect the same choppy range to continue the next few days as the debate
continues over the bullishness of a stronger economy and the bearishness of a
likely rise in interest rates.

Trading Performance

  1. First and foremost when it comes to trading performance is to put FUN
    and PASSION FIRST    .  I    f trading isn’t
    fun to you, there are a lot less costly ways to be miserable.  Get the
    performance pressures out of your head and forget about statistics, win/loss
    ratios, etc.  Don’t think about trying to win the game.  A good analogy is a
    professional tennis player who focuses only on the point at hand.  He’ll
    probably lose 1/2 the points he plays, but he doesn’t allow himself to worry
    about whether or not he’s down a set. 

     

  2. Another important part of performance is
    CONFIDENCE    .  Confidence in yourself, in your methodology, and your ability
    to succeed.  Some people are born confident, while others are able to transfer
    it from other aspects of life.  There’s also the old-fashioned “hard work” way
    of gaining confidence.  Put in the hours of finding out what works for you. 
    Tweak and modify systems so you can truly call them your own.  Just as you
    should put the pressure of winning out of your mind, you should put losing out
    even quicker.  A bad trade doesn’t mean you’ve blown your day.  It’s like
    cheating on a diet.  You can’t undo the damage that’s been done, however, it
    doesn’t mean you’ve blown the whole diet.  A certain amount of detachment adds
    a healthy dose of objectivity.

     

  3. Trading is a great business because the market
    closes at the end of the day. This gives a clean slate to start the next day. 
    Forget about what you did yesterday, or last week, or last month, or last
    year.  What counts is your focus on TODAY. 

     

  4. Finally, give your ATTITUDE a test. 
    Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in
    the markets.  Attitude is how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps
    forward and 2 steps back.  Slumps are inevitable and every trader has gone
    through them, but once you dig yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it
    takes, you know that you can do it again.  That knowledge is a powerful
    weapon.  A good trade is one that has the probabilities in its favor, but that
    doesn’t always mean that it’ll work out.  Just like sports, the statistics are
    only meaningful when looking at a string of numbers.  For example, i    n
    football, not every play is going to gain yardage.  What percentage of games
    need to be won to make the playoffs?  It’s a number much smaller than most are
    willing to accept as a win/loss ratio. 

Here’s a question for you: Should you look
at a trade logically or psychologically?  In other words, should every trade
stand on its own merits?  Theoretically yes, but it’s much easier said than done
and doesn’t always work out that way.  Most of us are likely to manage a trade
differently depending on whether the previous trade was a winner or a loser.

Daily Pivot Points for 4-28-04

Symbol Pivot       R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
COMP 2037.91 2048.19 2063.84 2074.12 2022.26 2011.98 1996.33
INDU 10485.75 10529.76 10581.35 10625.36 10434.16 10390.15 10338.56
NDX 1483.84 1491.25 1503.04 1510.45 1472.05 1464.64 1452.85
SPX 1140.63 1144.36 1150.56 1154.29 1134.43 1130.70 1124.50
ES 1139.67 1144.58 1151.17 1156.08 1133.08 1128.17 1121.58
SP 1139.63 1144.57 1151.13 1156.07 1133.07 1128.13 1121.57
NQ 1486.83 1496.17 1507.33 1516.67 1475.67 1466.33 1455.17
ER2 589.83 594.27 599.33 603.77 584.77 580.33 575.27
YM 10475.67 10514.33 10561.67 10600.33 10428.33 10389.67 10342.33
ZB 107.78 108.36 108.69 109.27 107.45 106.87 106.54
BKX 97.33 97.74 98.33 98.74 96.74 96.33 95.74
SOX 471.57 476.38 484.43 489.24 463.52 458.71 450.66
QQQ 36.90 37.12 37.40 37.62 36.62 36.40 36.12
SMH 37.66 38.05 38.64 39.03 37.07 36.68 36.09
IWM 117.74 118.62 119.59 120.47 116.77 115.89 114.92

Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have and have a great trading day tomorrow!

Chris Curran

chrisc@tradingmarkets.com