This Is Where We’re At In The Bull Move

Actually, I think a
lot of heavy stuff has already been coming down.
Not much has changed from
my last report. In the short-term, I do believe we
are on nothing more than a bounce for the areas I told you to avoid
(REITs, mortgage-related, interest-rate sensitive). Maybe
you get a little more to the upside but I suspect before they can move up in
earnest, some retesting will be necessary. I say this because the bond market
feels like it could bounce…but let me be clear…Bonds look like they have had it. I never try
to think farther out than my headlights can see, but it feels like the bubble
burst. We shall see.

The latest negative is the oft-mentioned
Semis. Very simply…YIKES!
The SOX, in short order, was slammed the past
couple of days. Notice how it held the 200-day average and bounced on Friday.
A clear break of the 200-day would be even more negative than what we have
already seen…which is a broadening top in the SOX. Amazingly, just a few
days ago, the SOX and most other TECH proxies were poised to break out of a
cup-and-handle pattern. This is a great example of why you never jump the gun.