Futures Point To A Strong Open
INTEREST RATES
02/19 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 04:19 AM:BONDS-3 The
charts make the Treasury market look a little vulnerable but the fundamental
outlook doesn’t play along with that theme. Certainly one might fear slightly
less intense intervention buying by the BOJ, but from the action yesterday, it
would seem that the BOJ was working to push the Yen lower and was successful,
even in the face of an initial new contract low in the Dollar. Certainly seeing
the Dollar rebound takes some of the pressure off the BOJ and with the initial
claims expected to post a moderate decline it is possible that the Treasuries
see a little liquidation or profit taking.
STOCK INDICES
02/19 OVRNIGHT CHG to 04:19 AM:S&P+450, DOW38,
NIKKEI +76, FTSE+51 While prices are generally favoring the upside it is clear
that the market is once again doubting the recovery pace and the relative level
of stock prices. The economic numbers this week have been very disjointed, while
the corporate news has only been slightly supportive. Even the merger and
acquisition news has failed to stoke aggressive speculative interest.
DOW
While the Dow managed a new high for the move yesterday, it failed to hold those
new highs into the close. Therefore, the bull camp needs to keep control over
sentiment with a new high close today. If the early numbers help the bulls, they
should control the day. However, seeing the March Dow fall back below 10,670
early in the session would partially deflate the early bull set up.
S&P
With a combination of favorable earnings and favorable US economic stats, the
S&P should be able to forge new contract highs. However, we don’t get the sense
that investors are ready to simply throw money at the market and mount an
aggressive run. Critical support comes in at 1150.50 and an upside pivot point
is regained with a 1157.30 trade.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
US DOLLAR
Today could be an extremely critical day for the
Dollar, as the action yesterday threatens the existing bear psychology.
Certainly the French comments about intervention saved the Dollar but there will
have to be more comments of that type to turn this market around. The only other
way to turn the Dollar is to see the prospect of higher US interest rates.
Therefore, the Dollar might pay a little more attention than normal to the US
readings. We seriously doubt that the Dollar is prepared to thrust higher but we
do think that the Dollar is getting into bottoming position. However, once the
Dollar rises to 86.40 we doubt that the bounce will continue, unless the numbers
provide a basis for that type of action.
EURO
What we think has happened is that the ECB is
getting closer to throwing their hat into the intervention ring but it will take
further confirmation from the numbers to get official action. Therefore, traders
should expect the market to begin paying more attention to the regularly
scheduled Euro zone numbers, as any sign that the recovery is faltering, could
bring on selling of the Euro. As we suggested yesterday, the easy money has
already been made on the long side of the Euro. A failure below 126.52 today
could result in a slide down to lower support of 126.10 but we really don’t
think that the Euro is going to head straight down. In other words, we suspect
that sellers will have the chance to sell the euro at contract highs, or at
least up around 127.77.
YEN
We think the BOJ was taking no chances and in fact
poured on the intervention pressure when the Dollar bounced. In other words, if
one is battling to keep their currency down and the market begins to help your
efforts, why not move the battle line away from 95.00 and down to 93.50!
However, pressing the Yen is like pushing a beach ball under water! In fact,
until the Dollar officially begins to rise, we have to leave the favor with the
bull camp in the yen.
^next^
SWISS
The near term damage should be done in the Swiss but
we think that the currency might have already made a major top. However, one
should get a chance to sell the Swiss back up around 81.24. The Swiss economy
simply doesn’t support a perpetually soaring currency!
BRITISH POUND
The correction in the Pound is a buy. While there
have been some recent cracks in the UK economy, the momentum in the economy
should carry the Pound back to the recent highs in the coming sessions.
CANADIAN DOLLAR
We think the Canadian is sitting almost exactly at
mid range into the opening today. Look to sell a minor bounce to 75.75 looking
to risk to 76.40.
METALS
OVERNIGHT
GLD-1.90, SLV-5.00, PLAT-1.30 London A.M.
Gold Fix $410.20 -$5.70 LME COPPER STOCKS 308,750 -4,250 tons COMEX Gold stocks
3.347 ml Unchanged Comex Silver stocks 123.9 ml +59,195 oz
GOLD
The near term bias turned negative with the Dollar
rejection of the new low move on Wednesday. The fact that the French President
hinted at possible intervention turned sentiment around in the Euro, even though
the statements are at odds with recent ECB official comments. With Chinese and
Asian gold pricing weaker, it’s a good bet that US prices will be soft.
SILVER
Critical support in March silver comes in at $6.585
and then again down at $6.55. Unlike gold, silver did not level its spec
position much with the January break and was most certainly at a record spec
long around the highs yesterday. Therefore, the silver market does have the risk
of extensive stop loss selling, in the event that chart support levels are
violated.
PLATINUM
A gap down move in platinum would undermine other
markets but platinum has been able to discount aggressive liquidation pressure
rather well in this bull market. Therefore, the bias might be down but there
really isn’t a massive small spec long position to be forced from the market.
Near term critical pivot point support is seen down at 844.
COPPER
With the Chinese copper market lower overnight that
would seem to leave the US market in a negative posture but that simply isn’t
the case. The Chinese weakness was merely following the US corrective action
Wednesday. Yesterday BHP indicated in their earnings statements that they see no
sign that Chinese demand is going to abate and that probably provided the US
market with a more positive look.
CRUDE COMPLEX
While one has to be careful attacking the short
side of the energy complex, it would seem that recent OPEC comments are serving
to deflate some of the bullish tilt in prices. For instance, some OPEC members
suggested that full compliance could alleviate the need to cut production into
the April 1st date. It is also a little surprising for the Iranian Oil Minister
to foster negative price action but with US import stats showing sharply rising
Saudi and Mexican imports into the US, maybe Iran is sending a message to all
“over-producers” that compliance is necessary in the coming months.
NATURAL GAS
While we are a little surprised that natural gas
prices rose Wednesday, there was enough residual cold weather demand around the
globe to provide the market with the upward bias. However, if the regular energy
complex shows slightly weaker price action ahead, that could undermine the
natural gas market. We continue to think that April natural gas prices above
$5.40 are a little expensive, but we can’t rule out a temporary rise to $5.50.