You’ll Need These Pivot Numbers For Thursday
Stock index
futures opened
Wednesday’s session with gaps to the upside and never looked back as Friday’s
quadruple-witching countdown began. Good broker buying and a strong price fade
against the TICK kept the shorts under pressure from the opening bell.  The ES
based just under R2 resistance for an hour, and when repeated attempts failed to
break it, the only direction left to go was up. The contract based out again
above R2 through the lunchtime lull before grinding its way higher the rest of
the session in an ascending channel that finally ran out of steam at R3 and
daily Fib resistance at 1125.
The June SP 500 futures closed
Wednesday’s session with a gain of +12.25 points, and finished in the top 1/2 of
the daily range. Volume in the ES was estimated at 695,000 contracts, which was
behind Tuesday’s pace, and right at the daily average. Looking at the daily
chart, the ES reversed off of Tuesday’s doji to give the 38% retracement of the
3/5-16 down move a test. On an intraday basis, the 60-min triangle was resolved
and the contract closed with 60-min and 30-min cups and handles.
June bonds succumbed to
profit-taking and left Tuesday’s key reversal unconfirmed, but still managed to
hold the 62% Fib retracement level at 115-08. The Banking Index (BKX) was able
to settle back above its 20-day MA, but ran into resistance at its broken daily
trend line.
Thursday morning gives us some key reports
starting at 8:30 with Weekly Jobless Claims and its estimate for a slight
increase to 345,000. The month-delayed January PPI is also scheduled to be
released at 8:30, not that it really matters at this point. February Leading
Indicators follows at 10 am, with an estimate for a 0.1% increase, and the
Philadelphia Fed at 12 noon, with a consensus of 30.0. With the market at the
mercy of options expiration the rest of the week, we may still see some upside
bias, but I wouldn’t read too much into it until we can take a more objective
look at Monday’s “regular” session.
Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have and have a great trading day tomorrow!