It’s Time To Play Defense
There is a
chance that the upside has been taken out. No, I am not talking
about Liza Minelli’s marriage…I am talking about the market. I only say “a
chance” because this market has surprised to the upside many times since March.
BUT...if you take a step back, the S&P and DOW have
gone nowhere in over four months. The fireworks were in the small-mid caps. It
is time to play defense. BUT what I believe does
not matter because we will continue to play things on a day-to-day basis but it
feels like the upside is limited. As far as downside…time will tell.
Here is what we do know.
The market reversed down last
Wednesday…the day Intel
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announced its great numbers. I have always told you to watch for negative
reversals on the “good news.” This type of action almost always puts in a
near-term top.
The market sold off Wednesday on heavier volume.
Many leading names have topped…
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NTES |
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leading names for the direction in the market.
BIOTECHS have topped. They have been a leading
group since March. Please take a look at
my last report for what I thought of the BIOTECHS.
The DOLLAR
continues to sell off…and nobody seems to care. I have been telling you that
if the drop continued, one day the market would get its comeuppance.
CHINA, JAPAN
and other foreign markets have gone parabolic. All I hear now is to buy China
and Japan…once again…AFTER the move. If anything will correct…it’s these
overheated markets.
There are still too many complacent
bulls…and a lack of bears. Put/call figures are complacent…odd-lot action is
complacent…and all the smelly-fish analysts have been jumping over each other
upgrading stocks AFTER the move.
Bulletin board, $1 stocks and a lot of
froth have been working…and the amount of calls I am getting on my radio show
asking about these stocks has been picking up. A year ago, all the questions
were about shorting stocks. My, how quickly things can change.
The simple advice, go slow. There are
some names I love if the market does hold up like
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SEE |
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CAKE |
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CECO |
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Gary Kaltbaum