To Real Traders, This Is All That Matters…
Both major
markets continued to hold their daily downtrends this week,
albeit with the Nasdaq actually outperforming the
broader market beginning mid-week. For the week, the S&P pretty much marked time
by losing a whopping point (but oh, those intraday swings!), while the Nasdaq
actually tacked on 20.Â
Friday’s late action was again on the ugly side (“ugly” is the wrong
trading term, but let’s use non-trading industry jargon for a moment — more on
that below) as the S&P gave up most of the day’s gains in the last 30
minutes. Volatility imploded during the latter part of the week, which helped
both indices curtail their freefalls for now, and trading price pace slowed
significantly with the drop.
As we open next week, short-term traders may again be blessed with a possible 13
vs. 60 minute triangle as the week unfolds. Yet let’s let the charts speak for
themselves and then bring out the old soapbox for the first time in a while.
S&P 500
Nasdaq
Moving Avg
Legend: 15MA
Larger Timeframe 15MA
See https://www.donmillertrading.com
for Setups and Methodologies
Charts © 2003 Tradestation
It’s Soapbox Time!
It’s been a while since I used this space to “vent,” so let’s have at it.
From time to time, maybe once a quarter, I’ll scan the general industry press
and talk with a few traders to determine, as one rather well-known CNBC analyst
puts it, what “trading desks are saying.” Do you ever wonder who these
people are, whether they really exist, and whether it really matters? Then
again, I continue to put out a weekly column as a commitment I made to Larry
Connors several years ago, so I’m now taking shots at myself. Yet I digress.
As I’ve mentioned in the past, checking to see what others are doing,
thinking, etc., is a habit I try to avoid like the plague as I’ll go to my grave
believing that professional trading is best done in a closet, in terms of
letting other opinions affect one’s strategy once it’s been fine-tuned. Yet I do
tend to put an ear to the ground when the longer-term market begins to hit
intermediate extremes, for the fun of it. We’ll call this brief lapse
“entertainment,” and for the first time in several months, I actually turned on
the tube a couple of times when there wasn’t pending economic news — news
being about the only thing a TV is good for during the trading day, aside
from a doorstop, but there I go again.
Anyway, listening to the babbling reinforced my long-standing belief that
pattern recognition, effective trade management and personal discipline is all
that matters for real traders. Opinions? Don’t matter. Market movement
reasons? Price movement and patterns should tell you everything you need to know
… and “everything” is nowhere close to an exaggeration.
Which brings me to a ton of emails I’ve received over the years — some recently
— from traders who are unfortunately simply looking for the easy way to trading
profits. Such motives are crystal clear when reading the first sentence … that
they essentially want someone to tell them what to do. And while I try to
be courteous and professional in my responses, part of me wants to say “Gee,
what a great business plan — placing hard work, responsibility, and blame on
someone other than themselves.” Plus, many want it for free!
At this point, I’ll
take another shot at myself, for we all seemed to be on the seeking end early in
our careers before some of us for one reason or another found ourselves placed
on the receiving end as the result of various efforts and requests. Yet, there I
go off the track again.
At the risk of hopefully stating the
ridiculously obvious, and let me get on my tip-toes so you can see and hear me …
It doesn’t work that way. In this business, perhaps more than most
others, one reaps what one sows, and sowing takes toil, sweat, bumps,
investment, and most importantly, time. There are no short-cuts for the
lazy. And I honestly tried to get through the entire piece without using the
“L” word.
Which brings me to our weeklong E-Mini virtual trading room effort which will be
announced shortly and is scheduled for the week of April 25. Now before you
think this is simply a marketing plug — I suppose it is in part, yet please
bear with me — it’s the only time during the year where I currently choose
to teach via live market action and real trading (live trading being the only
way to effectively teach trading in my view … warts and all) in order to
devote the rest of my time and energies “sweating and toiling” in my own trading
business. While I thought about not doing another one as the effort at this end
is frankly exhausting — albeit exhilarating and very enjoyable — last year’s
strong participant feedback is the primary reason I agreed to do one more.
I wish I could say that one week will turn you into the world’s best trader and
that I’m the best teacher on the planet. And the Red Sox are still leading
the Yankees 5-2 in the eighth inning of Game 7. Of course, it doesn’t work
that way, lest we loop back to the above paragraphs. If you’re looking to
become someone totally dependent on another person for life, it’s not for you.
Yet for those looking for help in developing or enhancing their trading skills
by rolling up their sleeves and getting dirty for a week, I’ll again commit to
giving my all, day and night for the entire week, to try to get you inside my
head and share the reality of this business in terms of the many hard lessons
I’ve endured over the years of trading US (and more recently, foreign)
markets. We’ll use live US and foreign E-Mini market action and real trading to
do it, and if last year is any indication, we’ll have some good old-fashioned
fun along the way.
I’m looking forward to it.
Good Trading and Have a
Great Weekend!