Semis Hit Key Price Action Zone
What Friday’s Action Tells
You
The major indices put in another red week
with
the Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) -0.7%, SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) -1.2%,
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) -2.1%, and
Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) -3.4%. This price decline continued while the 4 MA of
the
volume ratio remains at 43 and breadth +118. On a price basis, most all of
the
major indices have 5-day RSIs of less than 20, with the
(
DIA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) at 27. The
most oversold, of course, are the XBD with a 5-day RSI of 9, SMH 13, and XLK
14.
The
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) led the downside last week at -9.9%, followed by the
XBD -3.4%,
while the bright spot on the long side was the energy play, with the
(
OIH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
+5.1% for the week.
My composite ratings over a specific time
period
for the major indices, sector HOLDRs and SPDRs has the XLE +141.96, XLU
+95.10,
XLB +52.40 and XLI +30.57. The bottom of the composite rankings is what you
would expect: PPH -208.44, XBD -176.67, SMH -147.16, Nasdaq -145.40, QQQ
-141.74, XLF -124.52, BKX -103.96 and RTH -102.10. The DIA is -87.39, helped
by
the better relative performance of the basics.
Friday’s market action was the early up
following
the economic report, then the contra move down into the 10:30 a.m. ET time
period, and from there, it was sideways into the 2:00 p.m. zone when the
expiration-related action took the index to new intraday lows.
For Active
Traders
The charts I have included today highlight
the
Slim Jim patterns for the SPY and QQQ with the breakout coming on the 2:10
p.m.
bar below all of the 20, 60 and 240 EMAs and also to new intraday lows.
Those of
you with the seminar material have had a lay-up with these Slim
Jims.
Today’s
Action
The SMH is at the most interesting price zone
having traded to an intraday low of 31.96 on Friday vs. the .50 retracement
to
the 17.32 October 2002 low of 31.55. Compare that to the SPX with a
retracement
low to 769 so far of 1076 vs. the .236 retracement level of 1070, .382 —
1012
and .50 — 966. The Dow has already retraced to a 9852 low so far, with the
.382
retracement at 10,010 and .50 retracement just below at 9473. The SPY closed
at
110.71 with the 12-month and 200-day EMAs both around 109.08. The DIA closed
at
101.50 with a 12-month EMA of 100.38 and 200-day EMA of 101.09. The QQQs,
led by
the semis, closed at 34.67, below its 200-day EMA at 35.23 and 12-month EMA
at
34.92, so that is the immediate upside price action zone. Below would be the
.382 retracement zone at 31.65.
The most significant short-term opportunities
are
when there is a continuation or reversal from a key price action zone, as we
have experienced recently with the SMH on both the long side and most
recently
the short side on the retracement back up to the 200-day EMA.
RST traders should also be aware of the
magnet
lows in the major indices that have to be taken out in order for the final
point
to set up.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
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