The First Key To Success

They taught focus. Focus is everything. Knowing what you want is just part
of the puzzle. Keeping your eye on the prize at all times is key to success.

 

They taught planning. Naming the prize is not good enough. You must make a
roadmap to success and follow it.

 

They taught tenacity. You will meet many that tell you that you won’t make
it. There will be many times where you are down because you made a mistake.
It’s those that know that all success stories were littered with mistakes
and sometimes, even disasters. Show me a successful person and I will show
you someone who failed many times.

 

They taught you to bring your “A” game every day. A few years back, I was
privileged to be able to interview Magic Johnson at the TradingMarkets
Convention in front of thousands. I felt like Mini Me standing next to
him. I asked him specifically how he was able to bring his best every night
when many others seemed like they were just going through the motions. He
simply said that being the best was instilled into him my his mother many
year’s before. He said  that to be the best, there was going to be no
compromise…ever! I never forgot his words.

 

They taught you to learn from your mistakes. Use your mistakes, don’t let
your mistakes use you. Making mistakes takes you closer to being right.  

 

So, this coming Thursday, I am leaving for the West coast of this great
country. I will be meeting with my friends at TradingMarkets as well as
meeting with investors for my new fund. I am then heading to Vegas for
almost 3 days. Yes, I will do some time at the pool at the Mirage…and yes,
I will pay homage to the Baccarat tables. But…the lionshare of my time
will be spent with 10 legal pads. I will be going over many things.

 

My year in review.

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I will go over my whole year. Business, family, health, wealth, children’s
education, lifestyle, time management, radio, TV and several other things
will be looked over. In other words, I will critique myself  in all areas. I
would spend time on my beloved Mets but they are worthless right now. I am
my own biggest critic. That’s how you improve.

 

Where I am at right now

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I will go over every aspect of these areas  and ask myself one simple
question: How can I improve? I then go through an arduous process on how I
can improve. What do I need to do to improve? How do I get there? What do I
need to do to get there?

 

Where do I want to be at the end of the year?

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I write down EXACTLY where I want to be at the end of the year. I then build
what I call my own yellow brick road to get there.

 

Sounds simple. Well, it is. I have learned that most people do not treat
themselves seriously enough. I have learned that too many live with the word
“average.” Average is OK…it is not good enough for me. Since telling you
about these treks I take twice a year, I have received emails from many of
you that are following this roadmap and that it has enabled  you to turn the
corner. For those who have not tried, here is your challenge. Take some time
out  this coming weekend. Try it…test it out. I promise you it will make a
big difference in your life going forward.

 

Oh…the market. I forgot.

 

The market has followed my script to a tee…unfortunately. But if you
listened, this ugliness should be bypassing you. I have been telling you
that the past several months were not just a consolidation but a topping out
phase that was going to lead into a bear market. I thought there was a
chance it would be staved off until after the election. NOT ANYMORE!

 

Every major index has now broke the all-important May support. For me, this
was the line that turned me longer-term bearish, not just intermediate.
Please do not ignore these thoughts as this column has nailed every bear
market for years.

 

Let’s go through the evidence again.

 

All major indices are now trading below their short and long-term moving
averages.

 

New lows are now swamping new highs.

 

Mutual fund cash is down to a paltry 4.4%…about the same number as the top
in 2000. This tells you there is not a lot of firepower left.

 

Secondaries and IPOS are coming out en masse. That soaks up liquidity. The
good news is that many have been postponed. I am amazed at the big
investment banks bringing out companies with no revenues. They obviously did
not learn from Webvan, Buy.com and other junk. Do not be surprised if the
Google deal gets unwound…or at least, revised. That deal, the way it was
structured, would make the Keystone Cops look serious.

 

Insiders selling like the world is ending while buying continues to be
miniscule.

 

No one is worried. There are still too many bulls and not enough bears. I
saw no one in print, TV or anywhere else calling this any more than a nasty
correction.

 

I can go on and on but the most important thing to happen was the May lows
being broke. Let me be clear, I do believe the market is ridiculously
oversold here. I wouldn’t doubt a sharp bounce in the coming days. But,
until things change, all bounces are to be sold into. I would not be trying
to play the bounces as, so far, any bounce has been anemic and short-lived. 
And…if I am right, the last inning of the bull just ended and the lean is
to the first inning of the bear is at hand. Furthermore, even if the market
bounces and hangs in for a bit, it will only just be putting off the
inevitable.

 

I know this is not what most of you want to hear. Just like you, I would
rather see markets going up then down. But…bear markets do not have to be
painful. You just have to listen to the market and get out of the way. The
market has spoken loud and clear.

Gary Kaltbaum