Here’s What Boone Pickens Suggested About Oil
BOND MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Bonds closed up 0-05 at 114-06. This was
0-17 up from the low and 0-01 off the high.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-050
at 113-235, 0-005 off the high and 0-125 up from the low.
The Treasury market traded in negative
territory for most of the session but as the equity market failed and energy
prices rose to even higher levels it was clear that buyers returned to
Treasuries. With the Fed apparently changing their stance on the impact of
energy prices it was made clear that upcoming rate hikes weren’t a given. In our
opinion, the outlook for the economy continues to darken and with the election
fever rising by the day we would expect to see consumer and investing sentiment
deteriorate further and for Treasury prices to remain bullishly poised. If it
were not for the inflation threat and the concern that the Fed will hike rates
we suspect that Treasury prices would be significantly higher than current
levels.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 10/25/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily
closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher
prices. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The
near-term upside target is at 114-27. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is
approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 114-21 and
114-27, while 1st support hits today at 113-31 and below there at 113-14.
TNOTES (DEC) 10/25/2004: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the
9-bar moving average. The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a
bullish tilt. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is
in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at 114-055. The
next area of resistance is around 114-010 and 114-055, while 1st support hits
today at 113-180 and below there at 113-070.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
10/22/2004
December S&P finished down 11.8 at 1095.9, 12.6
off the high and 1.1 up from the low.
December S&P E-Mini closed down 11.75 at 1096.
This was 1.25 up from the low and 13.75 off the high.
December Dow closed down 112 at 9751. This was 10
up from the low and 129 off the high.
December Dow E-Mini finished down 114 at 9749,
130 off the high and 8 up from the low.
The stock market showed some early signs of
strength off the favorable Google earnings but as the day progressed the ever
rising energy prices situation once again began to undermine sentiment. While
Weyerhaueser managed to post a decline earnings report the market was simply too
concerned about macro economic conditions to concern itself with the usual
focus. The stock market even failed to check its slide in the wake of comments
from the Fed which seemed to lower the odds or near term interest rate hikes in
the US. The energy price rise Friday seemed to be fostered by domestic shortage
concerns instead of some international threat and that could suggest that the US
has a structural problem that might now be easily remedied.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 10/25/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market’s close below the
9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The
swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st
support number. The next downside objective is 1085.23. The next area of
resistance is around 1103.05 and 1112.62, while 1st support hits today at
1089.35 and below there at 1085.23.
SP EMINI (DEC) 10/25/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. The outside day down and close below the previous day’s
low is a negative signal. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close
under the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is 1083.75. The next
area of resistance is around 1102.75 and 1113.75, while 1st support hits today
at 1087.75 and below there at 1083.75.
NASDAQ (DEC) 10/25/2004: A negative indicator was
given with the downside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. The daily
stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum
studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support
levels are broken. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close
remains below the 9-day moving average. The market is in a bearish position with
the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next downside objective is
1413.50. The next area of resistance is around 1461.00 and 1487.50, while 1st
support hits today at 1424.00 and below there at 1413.50.
MINIDOW (DEC) 10/25/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market’s close
below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains
negative. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a
moderately negative setup for today. The next downside target is 9642. The
market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area
of resistance is around 9818 and 9917, while 1st support hits today at 9680 and
below there at 9642.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December US Dollar finished down 15 at 8597, 33
off the high and 3 up from the low.
December Euro finished up 0.24 at 126.46, 0.03
off the high and 0.49 up from the low.
December Euro Dollar closed unchanged at 97.725.
This was 0.01 up from the low and 0.005 off the high.
December Canadian Dollar closed up 0.54 at 80.92.
This was 0.64 up from the low and 0.13 off the high.
December British Pound finished down 0.3 at
181.85, 0.29 off the high and 0.22 up from the low.
December Swiss closed up 0.13 at 82.46. This was
0.42 up from the low and 0.09 off the high.
December Japanese Yen closed up 0.11 at 93.47.
This was 0.34 up from the low and 0.1 off the high.
The US Dollar forged a surprisingly tight range
Friday despite the fact that energy prices ramped up to new highs and the stock
market was generally weak. It almost seemed like Fed dialogue discouraged
selling in the Dollar, as the Fed seemed to tone down their opinion that high
oil prices weren’t a threat to the US economy. It was clear from the action
Friday that the Canadian Dollar was coming back into favor and that was about
the only significant trend of the session in the currency markets.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 10/25/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. With the close
higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.
The near-term upside target is at 93.84. The market is approaching overbought
levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 93.68 and
93.84, while 1st support hits today at 93.25 and below there at 92.97.
EURO (DEC) 10/25/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive
setup. The next upside target is 126.86. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the
market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around
126.72 and 126.86, while 1st support hits today at 126.20 and below there at
125.83.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
10/22/2004
December Gold closed unchanged at 425.6. This was
2.4 up from the low and 0.9 off the high.
December Silver finished up 0.023 at 7.333, 0.037
off the high and 0.093 up from the low.
January Platinum closed down 6.9 at 844.9. This
was 4.9 up from the low and 2.1 off the high.
Gold and silver prices were mixed and slightly
divergent which can sometimes be a negative in its own right. Since the US
Dollar mostly held together, after another early new low probe it seemed that
some gold bulls became impatient. It is possible that many bulls were fearful of
a massive overbought condition in the COT report that will be released after the
close and that prompted some profit taking. In a big picture sense it would seem
that energy prices will keep the Dollar pointing down and that overall flight to
quality sentiment will remain very much in play and that should underpin gold
prices. It was clear from the action Friday that silver is in a much more
vulnerable position than gold.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 10/25/2004: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the
9-bar moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside objective is 744.9. The
next area of resistance is around 739.8 and 744.9, while 1st support hits today
at 726.9 and below there at 719.0.
GOLD (DEC) 10/25/2004: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed
over the pivot swing number. The next upside target is 428.5. The next area of
resistance is around 427.2 and 428.5, while 1st support hits today at 424.0 and
below there at 422.0.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Copper finished down 0.80 at 130.55,
0.45 off the high and 2.55 up from the low.
The copper market is behaving as if the macro
economic case is undermining sentiment and with oil prices rising to new highs
and the stock market weak we can understand some buyers standing away from the
recent highs. News that the Chile Escondida mine posted a 17% increase in
production for the first 3 quarters of 2004 could have deflated prices as that
production total was significant at 892,895 tons. Also dampening sentiment were
reports before the opening that Shanghai copper stocks increased by 2,900 tons
on the week.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Crude Oil closed up 0.70 at 55.17. This
was 0.47 up from the low and 0.33 off the high.
December Heating Oil closed up 1.52 at 159.76.
This was 1.26 up from the low and 1.24 off the high.
December Unleaded Gas finished up 2.55 at 144.04,
0.66 off the high and 1.74 up from the low.
December Natural Gas finished up 0.27 at 8.99,
0.14 off the high and 0.15 up from the low.
December Propane closed up 0.03 at 0.97. This was
equal to the low and equal to the high.
Energy prices continued to rise despite the lack
of a fresh supply threat. With T-Boone Pickens suggesting in an interview that
he would never again seen $35 crude oil pricing and in the same breath expecting
to see $60 or even $70 crude oil pricing it is clear that the bulls are
confident. News reports that Iraqi insurgents might have unlimited resources
could keep the threat against Iraqi oil in the offing and that supports prices.
Recently the Iraqi oil Minister projected that production would rise but
apparently the market isn’t willing to rely on that oil. Apparently the heating
oil market is leading the complex and with the natural gas market exploding the
whole winter shortage theme was clearly evident.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (DEC) 10/25/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in
overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The gap upmove on
the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. Since the close was
above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could
see more upside follow-through early in the session. The near-term upside
objective is at 55.93. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching
overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 55.57 and 55.93, while
1st support hits today at 54.77 and below there at 54.34.
UNLEADED (DEC) 10/25/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is
a bullish indication. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory
which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close above the
9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. Follow
through buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day
session chart. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the
market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in
the session. The near-term upside objective is at 146.16. The next area of
resistance is around 145.23 and 146.16, while 1st support hits today at 142.84
and below there at 141.37.
HEATING OIL (DEC) 10/25/2004: The market made a
new contract high on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentum but are
now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market’s
short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. With
the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately
positive position. The next upside target is 162.25. The 9-day RSI over 70
indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of
resistance is around 161.01 and 162.25, while 1st support hits today at 158.51
and below there at 157.26.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Corn finished down 2 1/2 at 201
3/4, 2 1/4 off the high and 1/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 2 3/4 at
212 1/4. This was 1/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.
After moving to the highest level since September
29th on Wednesday, December corn closed 5 cents lower on the week. Ideas that
the harvest activity will pick-up and the commercial selling from increasing
harvest pressures will weigh on the market helped to trigger early selling from
speculators. Traders believe that Monday’s weekly crop progress report could
show the harvest near 54% complete as compared with 44% last week. Gulf corn
basis was steady but country locations seem to be seeing a little more producer
selling as bids are weakening. However, some traders look for above normal
rainfall for the northern and western cornbelt (areas farthest behind in
harvest) for next week and if these forecasts are more dominate early next week,
a more significant slowdown in harvest might support. Last weeks
Commitment-of-Traders report with options showed the market in an extreme
oversold condition with speculators holding a near record net position and
traders will watch the report tonight to see the extent of speculative
short-covering which has already occurred. Support for December corn comes in at
201 3/4 and 199 with 204 1/2 and 205 1/2 as resistance.
Technical Outlook
CORN (DEC) 10/25/2004: The daily stochastics have
crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies trending lower
at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close
below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is 199 3/4. The next
area of resistance is around 203 and 204 3/4, while 1st support hits today at
200 1/2 and below there at 199 3/4.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
10/22/2004
November Soybeans finished up 2 at 530, 3 1/2 off
the high and 4 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 1 at 532. This
was 4 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 2.1 at 156.4. This
was 0.1 up from the low and 1.9 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished up 0.45 at 20.85,
0.05 off the high and 0.55 up from the low.
The outside day higher for oil and highest close
since prior to the October USDA report was seen as a positive development but
weakness in meal helped limit the impact. Talk of firm demand for soybeans oil
for bio-diesel use helped drive soyoil higher and supported the soybean futures
but meal was under pressure from fears that meal supplies could be burdensome if
more soybeans are crushed for oil. December oil closed 53 higher on the week
with November soybeans up 16 1/4 cents on the week and December Meal up $3.70.
There was more speculative selling early in the session with growing concerns
for the increased harvest pressure early next week and from follow-through
technical selling from the reversal yesterday. Traders believe that Monday’s
weekly crop progress report could show the harvest near 80% complete as compared
with 71% last week. Gulf soybean basis had a firm tone this morning as producer
selling is still slow; especially after the lower futures trade yesterday.
European rapemeal prices are down 25% in the past month as European crushers
have boosted the crush pace in an effort to support the strong demand for
bio-diesel, especially from Germany and France. Rapeseed crush in Europe could
reach 12 million tons this year, up 14% from last year. Brazil analysts, Safras,
pegged the 2004/2005 soybean crop at 63.2 million tons as compared with the USDA
estimate at 64.5 million but still well above last years crop of 49.9 million
tons. November soybean resistance comes in at 531 1/2 and 533 1/2 with 521 1/2
and 517 3/4 as next support.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (NOV) 10/25/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The market’s close above the 9-day moving
average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The upside closing price
reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The market’s close below the
pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next upside objective is 537
1/2. The next area of resistance is around 533 3/4 and 537 1/2, while 1st
support hits today at 526 1/4 and below there at 522 1/4.
MEAL (DEC) 10/25/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a
close over the 9-bar moving average. The swing indicator gave a moderately
negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The near-term
upside objective is at 158.8. The next area of resistance is around 157.4 and
158.8, while 1st support hits today at 155.4 and below there at 154.9.
BEANOIL (DEC) 10/25/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. A positive signal was given by the outside day up. The
market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The near-term upside target is at 21.32. The next area of resistance
is around 21.15 and 21.32, while 1st support hits today at 20.55 and below there
at 20.13.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Wheat finished down 3 1/4 at 308 1/2, 3 1/2 off the
high and 1/2 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 3 1/4 at 318 3/4. This was
3/4 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.
After moving to the highest level since September
29th on Wednesday, December wheat closed 10 3/4 cents lower on the week.
Weakness in corn added to the bearish tone. Disappointing technical action late
this week along with disappointment over the poor market share of the Egypt
purchase yesterday helped trigger increased speculative selling and lower
prices. In addition, traders see the current and recent weather in the US as
favorable for planting and early development for the US winter wheat crop.
Recent dry weather in Australia and the poor quality harvest in Canada remain as
supportive factors. Pakistan officials are likely to finalize plans for a tender
for near 500,000 tonnes in the next few days. December wheat support comes in at
309 and 306 1/4 with resistance at 314 1/2 and 319 1/4.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (DEC) 10/25/2004: Positive momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The market’s
close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend
remains negative. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the
market. The near-term upside target is at 313 1/4. The next area of resistance
is around 310 1/2 and 313 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 306 1/2 and below
there at 305 1/4.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
10/22/2004
December Live Cattle closed up 1.02 at 88.02.
This was 0.32 up from the low and 0.15 off the high.
November Feeder Cattle finished up 1.47 at
111.42, 0.12 off the high and 0.97 up from the low.
The cattle market pushed sharply higher led by
the stronger demand from packers for slaughter on Thursday and from higher cash
market trade on Friday. Cash markets traded at $86.00-$87.00 which was steady to
$1.00 higher from last week. Boxed-beef prices were up down 60 cents to $142.36
at mid-session as compared with $138.98 last week at this time. The results of
the USDA Cattle-on-Feed report, released this afternoon, should set the tone for
the market for next week. The average trade estimate for October 1 on-feed
supply was at 101.7% (range 100.3-102.9), September placements at 92.8% (range
86-98) and September marketings at 89.8% (88-92).
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (DEC) 10/25/2004: The cross over and close
above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned positive. A negative indicator was given with the downside crossover of
the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range
could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The market’s
short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving
average. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for
trend. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s
posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the
session. The next downside objective is 87.520. The next area of resistance is
around 88.250 and 88.450, while 1st support hits today at 87.800 and below there
at 87.520.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
10/22/2004
December Lean Hogs closed down 0.95 at 66.20.
This was 0.10 up from the low and 1.35 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished down 0.40 at
94.02, 0.72 off the high and 0.22 up from the low.
The hog market opened higher and bounced with
cattle early in the session but there was a lack of new buying interest on the
move to the highest level since Monday and the market slipped lower into the
close. Cash markets were steady as packers have held the market steady to higher
in the past three sessions trying to build up hogs for a hefty Saturday
slaughter. However, the surge in pork production this week is likely a factor to
pressure pork values and then cash markets by early next week. The CME 2-Day
Lean Index for the period ending October 20th was reported at 69.89, down $.17
from the previous session and down from 77.01 on October 7th.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (DEC) 10/25/2004: The close under the 40-day
moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Positive
momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action.
The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. The outside day down is somewhat negative. The market setup is
somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The near-term
upside target is at 67.950. The next area of resistance is around 66.900 and
67.950, while 1st support hits today at 65.470 and below there at 65.070.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Cocoa finished up 14 at 1448, 15 off the
high and 6 up from the low.
The cocoa market managed a minor rally despite
the fact that Ivory Coast farmers seemed to have called off the port blockage.
However, the situation wasn’t solved as the block was called off so that talks
could be carried out. As of the most recent dialogue it seemed that the farmers
were demanding more than in prior discussions and that might make it unlikely
that a quick resolution will be seen. While prices continue to get support from
the political realm, one should remember that harvest pressures could quickly
give the bears an edge.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (DEC) 10/25/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close
above the 9-day moving average. Market positioning is positive with the close
over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 1471. The
next area of resistance is around 1458 and 1471, while 1st support hits today at
1438 and below there at 1430.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Coffee closed down 0.45 at 75.10. This
was 0.60 up from the low and 1.50 off the high.
The coffee market closed 45 points lower on the
session for the December futures but 45 points higher on the week. The sweeping
reversal from Wednesday helped to provide some stability in the market and the
recent drop in exchange stocks is also seen as a supportive factor. The sharp
drop in open interest recently could indicate that the last of the Brazil dry
weather bulls may have already exited the market. Roaster demand appeared to be
steady this week and the focus of attention may shift to world demand factors
into late this year as the weather in Brazil becomes less of a factor for the
next few months.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (DEC) 10/25/2004: Daily momentum studies
are on the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push
through the 1st swing resistance. A positive signal for trend short-term was
given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The daily closing price reversal
down is a negative indicator for prices. It is a slightly negative indicator
that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside objective
is 77.40. The next area of resistance is around 76.15 and 77.40, while 1st
support hits today at 74.10 and below there at 73.25.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
March Sugar closed down 0.10 at 8.93. This was
0.01 up from the low and 0.12 off the high.
March sugar closed 10 lower on the session on
Friday and down 22 points on the week. The massive net long position of the
speculator leaves the market vulnerable to increased speculative long
liquidation selling if the 883 level is violated next week. If violated, the
market would have 19 trading sessions above the market. Traders await support
from trade houses as cash activity should pick-up on breaks. Russia has produced
2.26 million tons of white sugar from imported raw sugar for the first 9 months
of this year as compared with 3.498 million tons last year.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 10/25/2004: Stochastics trending
lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support
levels are taken out. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a
close under the 9-bar moving average. The daily closing price reversal down puts
the market on the defensive. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh
on the market. The next downside target is 8.83. The next area of resistance is
around 8.99 and 9.08, while 1st support hits today at 8.87 and below there at
8.83.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
10/22/2004
December Cotton finished down 0.14 at 45.67, 0.58
off the high and 0.56 up from the low.
The cotton market fell to another new low for the
move Friday morning but then managed to reject most of the early weakness.
Apparently the small specs were early sellers with either the funds or
commercial players picking up values into the afternoon action. Given the pain
seen by the small specs it might take industry or trade buyers to put in a floor
under prices. We have to think that deteriorating macro economic conditions are
adding to the bearish tilt in cotton. It is possible that drying weather in
Texas will end up being a little more negative in the action next week,
especially since the harvest action in Texas is funning about three weeks behind
schedule.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (DEC) 10/25/2004: A crossover down in the
daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower at
mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close
under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 44.54. The next area of
resistance is around 46.23 and 46.81, while 1st support hits today at 45.10 and
below there at 44.54.