Why Were Bonds Weak In Spite Of WalMart’s Comments? Here’s Why…
BOND MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
March Bonds closed down 1-06 at 110-17. This was
0-07 up from the low and 1-09 off the high.
March 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished down 0-190 at
111-145, 0-220 off the high and 0-030 up from the low.
The Treasury market continued to see signs
of long term liquidation as prices fell through a number of critical support
zones even though US stock prices were under aggressive attack. In other words,
one might have expected disappointing November sales projections from Wal-Mart
to provide support to bonds but instead traders were taking notice of bearish
opinions being thrown off by one of the world’s largest bond fund managers. Even
if the trade isn’t totally buying into a cyclical rotation away from US assets,
it is possible that they were buying into the idea that the US economy is
recovering.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (MAR) 11/30/2004: The daily stochastics
have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar
moving average. There could be some early pressure today given the market’s
negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside
target is 109-09. The next area of resistance is around 111-10 and 112-10, while
1st support hits today at 109-26 and below there at 109-09.
TNOTES (MAR) 11/30/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. A
negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close
below the 1st support number. The next downside target is 110-060. With a
reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of
resistance is around 111-070 and 111-245, while 1st support hits today at
110-140 and below there at 110-060.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
11/29/2004
December S&P finished down 5 at 1175.8, 11.7 off
the high and 3.3 up from the low.
December S&P E-Mini closed down 4.75 at 1176.
This was 3.75 up from the low and 15.25 off the high.
December Dow closed down 45 at 10469. This was 39
up from the low and 106 off the high.
December Dow E-Mini finished down 50 at 10460,
140 off the high and 42 up from the low.
The stock market managed an impressive opening
rally Monday but then failed at several critical support points supposedly off
talk that US holiday sales failed to meet early lofty expectations. Apparently
the stock market had a delayed reaction to the Wal-Mart sales revision as the
revamp in November sales was known to the market before the opening. However,
the trade apparently decided to bank some profits off the recent run and with
prices tripping up several technical sell signals on the charts the sell off
gathered momentum before managing to find support around mid session. With the
economic report slate gathering momentum as the week progresses we suspect that
trading activity will expand and the market will avoid the type of low volume
breakdown that was seen early Monday.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 11/30/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to
reinforce lower price action. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the
close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market’s close below the 1st
swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next
downside objective is now at 1163.00. Daily studies pointing down suggests
selling minor rallies. The next area of resistance is around 1183.50 and
1193.00, while 1st support hits today at 1168.50 and below there at 1163.00.
SP EMINI (DEC) 11/30/2004: The market rallied to
a new contract high. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend
to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The close below the 9-day
moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The outside day
down is somewhat negative. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close
under the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 1159.75.
Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The
next area of resistance is around 1185.25 and 1197.75, while 1st support hits
today at 1166.25 and below there at 1159.75.
NASDAQ (DEC) 11/30/2004: A new contract high was
made on the rally. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to
support lower prices if support levels are broken. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The
market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next
downside target is now at 1552.75. The next area of resistance is around 1591.50
and 1606.75, while 1st support hits today at 1564.50 and below there at 1552.75.
MINIDOW (DEC) 11/30/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. A negative signal was given by the outside day down. The
defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some
early weakness. The next downside objective is now at 10303. The next area of
resistance is around 10551 and 10666, while 1st support hits today at 10369 and
below there at 10303.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
December US Dollar finished up 15 at 8196, 24 off
the high and 17 up from the low.
December Euro finished down 0.17 at 132.76, 0.3
off the high and 0.47 up from the low.
December Euro Dollar closed down 0.0025 at
97.5225. This was 0.005 up from the low and 0.0025 off the high.
December Canadian Dollar closed down 0.56 at
84.36. This was 0.06 up from the low and 0.36 off the high.
December British Pound finished down 0.17 at
189.25, 0.23 off the high and 0.77 up from the low.
December Swiss closed down 0.21 at 87.62. This
was 0.42 up from the low and 0.27 off the high.
December Japanese Yen closed down 0.29 at 97.3.
This was 0.1 up from the low and 0.33 off the high.
The Dollar managed to start the session out on a
positive note as rumors of intervention were swirling. However, as the session
wore on the Dollar gave back the gains and finished at a vulnerable level on the
charts. With the US stock market coming under liquidation pressure it was easier
to sell the Dollar than it was last week during the general upward track in US
stock prices. However, some sellers of the Dollar are concerned about the
persistent threat of intervention and are also concerned about the potential for
an ultra strong weekending US payroll reading.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 11/30/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The swing
indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st
support number. The near-term upside objective is at 97.78. The market is
becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 97.51 and 97.78, while 1st support hits today at 97.09 and
below there at 96.93.
EURO (DEC) 11/30/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in
overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market has a
slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside
target is 133.48. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is
over 70. The next area of resistance is around 133.14 and 133.48, while 1st
support hits today at 132.38 and below there at 131.95.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
11/29/2004
December Gold closed up 4.4 at 453.7. This was
4.4 up from the low and 1.1 off the high.
December Silver finished up 0.157 at 7.77, 0.025
off the high and 0.165 up from the low.
January Platinum closed up 3 at 865.4. This was
5.9 up from the low and 1.1 off the high.
The gold and silver managed an impressive
performance Monday morning as both markets made gains in the face of a Dollar
rally. However, the concern of an international currency crisis remains on the
minds of many players and that is lending support to prices. The battle between
Harmony and Gold Fields seems to be a positive for gold prices especially with
gold managing to create its own headlines on a daily basis. While talk of
intervention was in the air Monday, few currency traders seem to think that the
Dollar is actually poised to turn around and therefore the bull trend in gold
looks to remain intact.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 11/30/2004: The crossover up in the
daily stochastics is a bullish signal. Rising stochastics at overbought levels
warrant some caution for bulls. The close above the 9-day moving average is a
positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt coming
into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The next
upside objective is 792.5. The next area of resistance is around 786.5 and
792.5, while 1st support hits today at 767.5 and below there at 754.5.
GOLD (DEC) 11/30/2004: The market rallied to a
new contract high. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution
for bulls. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. There could be more upside follow through since the market
closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside objective is 458.3. The
market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 456.4 and 458.3, while 1st support hits today at 451.0 and
below there at 447.4.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
December Copper finished up 0.65 at 144.50, 0.90
off the high and 0.50 up from the low.
The copper market was mostly positive Monday as
the market appeared to be playing catch up to gains made in the Asian markets,
while the US markets were closed for holiday. The market weathered a strike
solution and a moderately aggressively liquidation in the stock market and
managed to remain in positive territory. We suspect that year end book balancing
could rob the copper market of some fresh buying but with the trade unsure of
the delivery action on the Shanghai exchange one can’t rule out some extremely
violent trade into the end of the year. In other words, some players might try
to balance positions into year end but volatility in prices might make that a
difficult process.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
January Crude Oil closed up 0.32 at 49.76. This
was 0.58 up from the low and 0.19 off the high.
January Heating Oil closed down 0.83 at 145.84.
This was 1.24 up from the low and 2.66 off the high.
January Unleaded Gas finished up 0.26 at 131.51,
0.89 off the high and 1.01 up from the low.
January Natural Gas finished down 0.80 at 7.84,
0.39 off the high and 0.05 up from the low.
January Propane closed up 0.01 at 0.88. This was
equal to the low and equal to the high.
The energy markets came under pressure Monday
after the trade questioned the recent weekly draw in natural gas inventories and
played up the idea that OPEC was poised to provide more oil to the market.
Apparently the large natural gas price decline actually pulled down crude oil
and the rest of the complex. The market could have been supported by North Sea
production problems from the weekend, but apparently the trade wasn’t that
interested in temporary supply problems. Also dampening prices early Monday were
reports that Saudi Arabia had manage to boost its capacity to 11 million barrels
per day.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (JAN) 11/30/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The close above the 9-day moving average is a
positive short-term indicator for trend. With the close higher than the pivot
swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside
objective is 50.43. The next area of resistance is around 50.14 and 50.43, while
1st support hits today at 49.38 and below there at 48.90.
UNLEADED (JAN) 11/30/2004: Positive momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The
close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The
near-term upside objective is at 133.38. The next area of resistance is around
132.46 and 133.38, while 1st support hits today at 130.56 and below there at
129.58.
HEATING OIL (JAN) 11/30/2004: Daily stochastics
have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action
if it occurs. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over
the 9-bar moving average. The market could take on a defensive posture with the
daily closing price reversal down. With the close higher than the pivot swing
number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside target
is at 150.09. The next area of resistance is around 147.79 and 150.09, while 1st
support hits today at 143.89 and below there at 142.30.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
December Corn finished down 3 3/4 at 193
1/4, 3 1/4 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 2 1/4 at
204 3/4. This was 1 up from the low and 2 3/4 off the high.
The move to new contract lows keeps the bears in
control and adds to the confidence of the fund trader who continue to build a
hefty net short position. Funds were noted sellers of near 3500 contracts by
mid-session. South Korea bought 50,000 tons of China corn overnight which added
to the bearish tone and weakness in soybeans also helped promote new selling.
For first notice day for the December contract on Tuesday, traders are looking
for hefty deliveries of 500 to 2000 contracts with most estimates near 500 to
1500 contracts. Traders expect tonight’s weekly crop progress report to show
near 95% of the US crop harvested as compared with 92% last week. Weekly export
inspections came in at 26.74 million bushels as compared with trade expectations
at 33-37 million bushels. Cumulative shipments have reached just 19.9% of the
forecast for the season as compared with 24.5% on average for this time of the
year. Resistance for March Corn comes in at the 207 1/4 to 209 1/4 range with
202 3/4 as next support.
Technical Outlook
CORN (MAR) 11/30/2004: The market made a new
contract low on the break. The moving average crossover down (9 below 18)
indicates a possible developing short-term downtrend. Momentum studies are still
bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action
if it occurs. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term
indicator for trend. There could be some early pressure today given the market’s
negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside
target is 201 1/2. Some caution in pressing the downside is warranted with the
RSI under 30. The next area of resistance is around 206 1/2 and 208 3/4, while
1st support hits today at 203 and below there at 201 1/2.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
11/29/2004
January Soybeans finished down 9 at 539 1/2, 4
1/2 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. March Soybeans closed down 10 1/2 at
540 3/4. This was 3 1/4 up from the low and 5 1/4 off the high.
January Soymeal closed down 4.3 at 156.9. This
was 0.3 up from the low and 3.6 off the high.
January Soybean Oil finished down 0.47 at 20.27,
0.28 off the high and 0.24 up from the low.
The gap lower and weak close action is bearish
for a Monday. Funds were noted sellers of near 3000 contracts for soybeans and
5000 contracts for oil by mid-session. Good weather in Brazil helped trigger the
early weakness as heavy rains of up to 4 inches were reported for the weekend in
key Brazil growing regions. Speculative selling helped drive the market sharply
lower into mid-session. With most of the crop just planted in the past few
weeks, the weather is seen as a bearish development and should help Brazil
soybeans get off to a fast start for the growing season ahead. For first notice
day for the December contracts on Tuesday, traders are looking for oil
deliveries near 300-400 contracts and meal deliveries of 50-150 lots. Private
Grain analyst in Brazil (Celeres) reported that Brazil producers have sold just
14% of the 2004/2005 crop as compared with 46% sold by this time last year. This
news added to the bearish tone. Traders expect tonight’s weekly crop progress
report to show near 100% of the US crop harvested as compared with 95% last
week. Weekly export inspections came in at 34.34 million bushels as compared
with trade expectations at 27-32 million bushels. Cumulative shipments have
reached 36.6% of the forecast for the season as compared with 34% on average for
this time of the year. Resistance for January soybeans comes in at 544 and 553
1/2 with 532 1/4 and 525 1/4 as next support levels.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (JAN) 11/30/2004: The daily stochastics
have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies are
trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break
below the 1st swing support. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average
is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The gap down on the day
session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today. The market’s
close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup
for today. The next downside objective is now at 530 1/2. Bearish daily studies
indicate selling minor rallies this session. The next area of resistance is
around 544 and 548 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 535 and below there at
530 1/2.
MEAL (JAN) 11/30/2004: The daily stochastics have
crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Stochastics turning bearish at
overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are
broken. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term
indicator for trend. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap lower
price action on the day session chart. The close below the 2nd swing support
number puts the market on the defensive. The next downside target is now at
156.0. The next area of resistance is around 159.6 and 161.7, while 1st support
hits today at 156.8 and below there at 156.0.
BEANOIL (JAN) 11/30/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap
lower price action on the day session chart. The market is in a bearish position
with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next downside objective
is 19.90. The next area of resistance is around 20.74 and 20.99, while 1st
support hits today at 20.20 and below there at 19.90.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
December Wheat finished down 4 1/4 at 287, 5 off the high and
1 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 2 1/2 at 300 1/2. This was 2 up from
the low and 3 1/2 off the high.
The market attempted to digest the weakness on
Friday early in the session but fund selling emerged to drive futures to new
lows and March futures under psychological support at 3.00. For first notice day
for the December contract on Tuesday, traders are looking for hefty deliveries
of 500 to 1500 contracts. Traders were disappointed to hear of the Pakistan
tender to buy 40,000 tons of wheat from Russia or Central Asia as traders had
hoped that US exporters would have some chance at the business. In addition,
Iraq bought just 50,000 tons of US wheat at their tender to buy 100,000-150,000
tons of US wheat. Traders expect tonight’s weekly crop progress report to show
winter wheat crop conditions near last weeks level of 76% good to excellent
ahead of dormancy. Weekly export inspections came in at 12.1 million bushels as
compared with trade expectations at 15-20 million bushels. Cumulative shipments
have reached 58.2% of the forecast for the season as compared with 52.8% on
average for this time of the year. Resistance for March wheat comes in at the
303 and 308 with 298 and 295 as next support.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (MAR) 11/30/2004: The downside crossover (9
below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend.
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend
to support reversal action if it occurs. A negative signal for trend short-term
was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is
now at 295 1/2. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold
levels. The next area of resistance is around 303 1/4 and 306 1/4, while 1st
support hits today at 297 3/4 and below there at 295 1/2.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
11/29/2004
February Live Cattle closed up 0.15 at 90.12.
This was 0.52 up from the low and 0.10 off the high.
January Feeder Cattle finished up 1.15 at 104.05,
0.45 off the high and 0.75 up from the low.
The market inched higher in quiet, two-sided
trade as the market tries to assess the impact of a major snowstorm over the
weekend which is clashing with the outlook for dry weather from Tuesday to
Sunday in the plains. Muddy feedlot conditions should limit the available supply
of market-ready cattle this week but poor profit margins for packers after
paying up $4.00 last week may limit the buying support. Cash traded at $89.00
last week and the December contract has already priced-in at least $1.00 higher
in cash this week. Boxed-beef cut-out values were up $2.37 at mid-session to
$141.55 as compared with $138.30 last week at this time. The surge in beef
prices helped the market recover from early session weakness to close higher.
Slaughter came in at 110,000 head as compared with trade expectations at
106,000-115,000 head.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (FEB) 11/30/2004: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The daily closing
price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. The
close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside
target is at 90.620. The next area of resistance is around 90.420 and 90.620,
while 1st support hits today at 89.820 and below there at 89.400.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
11/29/2004
February Lean Hogs closed up 0.82 at 76.10. This
was 1.00 up from the low and 0.07 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished down 0.17 at
101.70, 0.77 off the high and 0.45 up from the low.
Strength in the cash markets helped support a new
contract high early in the session for February hogs for the third session in a
row. Cash hogs traded steady to $1.00 higher at most locations with Peoria live
hogs trading $2.00 higher. The CME 2-Day Lean Index for the period ending
November 24th was reported at 77.80, down $.40 from the previous session and
down from 78.45 last week at this time. The discount of futures to the cash
market continues to provide underlying support and also continues to fuel more
short-covering from small speculators who are thought to be holding a near
record net short position with a bullish technical trend. Open interest hit a
record high of 102,312 contracts. The market also found support from news that
the 4 week long strike at the Ontario slaughter plant came to an end over the
weekend. About 14,000 head per week have been moving into the US for slaughter
so slaughter should slow this week. Slaughter came in at 401,000 head as
compared with trade expectations at 395,000-400,000 head.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (FEB) 11/30/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some
caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close
over the 9-bar moving average. Market positioning is positive with the close
over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 76.920. The market is
becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 76.620 and 76.920, while 1st support hits today at 75.570
and below there at 74.800.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
March Cocoa finished unchanged at 1600, 3 off the
high and 47 up from the low.
While London cocoa prices were up Monday the US
cocoa market finished the session unchanged. The London market was supposedly
higher on industry buying but those gains were made after the market was
reported to be under pressure off origin selling. The trade continues to pick up
on talk that Ivory Coast farmers are hoarding beans in hopes of higher prices
and with talk that portions of the Nigerian harvest are coming into a peak
period it might be difficult for prices to rise. It would seem like US industry
buying was countered by trade selling and that is why prices were unable to
forge a defined direction on the first day of the week.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (MAR) 11/30/2004: The downside crossover of
the 9 & 18 bar moving average is a negative signal. Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 9-day moving
average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. With the close higher than
the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next
downside target is now at 1539. The next area of resistance is around 1625 and
1639, while 1st support hits today at 1575 and below there at 1539.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
March Coffee closed up 5.90 at 97.85. This was
5.10 up from the low and 0.40 off the high.
The coffee market literally exploded Monday and
reached the highest level since July of 2003. According to Press sources the
coffee market was run up off concentrated fund and trade buying which many
suggest is being prompted by long term technical systems. It was also clear that
little if any selling was willing to step up against the rally, especially after
commercials were thought to be pulling stocks away from exchange warehouses
under the guise of meeting upcoming winter demand. In any regard it would
certainly seem like the coffee market is giving demand a significant amount of
credit.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (MAR) 11/30/2004: The market rallied to a
new contract high. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish
indication. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought
levels. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day
moving average. If yesterday’s gap higher on the day session chart holds,
additional buying could develop this session. The market’s close above the 2nd
swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next upside target is
102.15. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.
The next area of resistance is around 100.60 and 102.15, while 1st support hits
today at 95.15 and below there at 91.20.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
March Sugar closed down 0.08 at 8.89. This was
0.03 up from the low and 0.09 off the high.
The sugar market forged a double top in the
action Monday and then proceeded to slide back toward last week’s consolidation.
While some physical buying interest was noted Monday, it would seem like sugar
prices got a little ahead of reality especially after the raw sugar market
showed moderate signs of weakness. The trade is thought to be generally
supported by hedge fund buying as that type of interest has been noted for most
of November. With talk that Russian 2005 sugar imports might be delayed due to
bureaucratic red tape we can understand the market coming up some pressure
during the trade Monday.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 11/30/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. The market tilt is slightly negative with the
close under the pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 9.02. The next area
of resistance is around 8.95 and 9.02, while 1st support hits today at 8.83 and
below there at 8.79.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
11/29/2004
March Cotton finished up 1.05 at 43.97, 0.03 off
the high and 1.17 up from the low.
On Monday the cotton market was simply reacting
to the bullish export sales report that was released last week when the futures
market was closed. Export sales were 236,200 bales compared to expectations of
150,000 to 180,000 bales. However, harvest weather is looking a little bearish
as key areas are drying and the forecast is for more dryness ahead. In the end,
the export sales figures were the main feature early in the day, with most of
the other developments coming in on the bear side of the equation. The cotton
market did note the presence of trade selling up around the highs Monday and
that could serve as a critical limitation for the bull camp.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (MAR) 11/30/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. There could be more upside follow through
since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside
objective is 44.88. The next area of resistance is around 44.57 and 44.88, while
1st support hits today at 43.37 and below there at 42.49.