3 Things That Supported The Market Today
BOND MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Bonds closed up 0-03 at 112-22. This was
0-05 up from the low and 0-10 off the high.
March 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-035 at
112-300, 0-040 off the high and 0-015 up from the low.
While the economic reports were bearish for
bonds, it was not enough of a catalyst to dive the market beyond established
ranges. March bonds continue to find resistance above the 113 level. The Nov PPI
up.5% and up 5% annual rate was above market expectations. U of M consumer
sentiment index for Dec also showed a big jump and may signal that consumers are
in more of a holiday buying mood. With bulls failing to get through 113
resistance this week, March bonds could probe lower next week if the economic
number (Retail Sales & Industrial Production) show surprise strength.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (MAR) 12/13/2004: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. The market’s close below the pivot swing
number is a mildly negative setup. The next upside objective is 113-09. The next
area of resistance is around 112-31 and 113-09, while 1st support hits today at
112-13 and below there at 112-04.
TNOTES (MAR) 12/13/2004: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The close over the
pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside target is at
112-255. The next area of resistance is around 112-185 and 112-255, while 1st
support hits today at 112-045 and below there at 111-290.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
12/10/2004
March S&P finished up 1.5 at 1192.2, 2 off the
high and 5 up from the low.
March S&P E-Mini closed up 1.25 at 1192. This was
5 up from the low and 2.25 off the high.
March Dow closed up 13 at 10565. This was 40 up
from the low and 20 off the high.
March Dow E-Mini finished up 14 at 10566, 21 off
the high and 43 up from the low.
A jump in Dec consumer sentiment, a stronger
Dollar and a sharp setback in energy prices gave support to the stock market
Friday. The in the U of M Dec consumer sentiment index may suggest that
consumers are in more of a holiday buying mood. Stocks were able to shrug off a
higher than expected PPI as a sharp break in energy market calmed any inflation
concerns. Thursday’s price reversal was a bullish technical signal and puts
March S&P in a position to test 1200 next week.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (MAR) 12/13/2004: A bullish signal was
given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. Positive momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. A
positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving
average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot
swing number. The next upside objective is 1198.45. The next area of resistance
is around 1195.70 and 1198.45, while 1st support hits today at 1188.70 and below
there at 1184.45.
SP EMINI (MAR) 12/13/2004: The daily stochastics
have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Momentum studies are rising
from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the
9-bar moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at
1198.56. The next area of resistance is around 1195.62 and 1198.56, while 1st
support hits today at 1188.38 and below there at 1184.07.
NASDAQ (MAR) 12/13/2004: Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close
over the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 1604.63. The next area of
resistance is around 1623.75 and 1627.62, while 1st support hits today at
1612.25 and below there at 1604.63.
MINIDOW (MAR) 12/13/2004: A positive indicator
was given with the upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average.
Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower
especially if support levels are taken out. The close above the 9-day moving
average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. With the close higher than
the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next
downside target is now at 10496. The next area of resistance is around 10597 and
10624, while 1st support hits today at 10533 and below there at 10496.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March US Dollar finished up 56 at 8270, 63 off
the high and 36 up from the low.
March Euro finished down 0.91 at 132.46, 0.07 off
the high and 0.66 up from the low.
March Euro Dollar closed down 0.02 at 97.15. This
was 0.015 up from the low and 0.025 off the high.
March Canadian Dollar closed down 0.21 at 81.58.
This was 0.57 up from the low and 0.2 off the high.
March British Pound finished down 1.1 at 190.54,
0.01 off the high and 1.04 up from the low.
March Swiss closed down 0.79 at 86.58. This was
0.4 up from the low and 0.12 off the high.
March Japanese Yen closed down 0.62 at 95.69.
This was 0.84 up from the low and 0.09 off the high.
The Dollar continued to gain ground against
foreign currencies, although the market had cut gains ahead of the weekend. The
hot PPI number may begin to raise ideas that the Fed may have to raise rates
more aggressively next year. China said they are not cutting their Dollar
holdings. March Dollar’s break over 83 resistance puts the market in a good
position to test 84 next week. Momentum is still in the Dollar’s favor and as
the economic situation between the US and foreign countries becomes more
pronounced, the Dollar will see further gains.
Technical Outlook
YEN (MAR) 12/13/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken.
The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling
pressure possible today. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close
under the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 94.58. The
next area of resistance is around 96.15 and 96.43, while 1st support hits today
at 95.23 and below there at 94.58.
EURO (MAR) 12/13/2004: Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below
the 9-day moving average. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap
lower price action on the day session chart. The swing indicator gave a
moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The
next downside objective is now at 131.59. Bearish daily studies indicate selling
minor rallies this session. The next area of resistance is around 132.82 and
133.04, while 1st support hits today at 132.10 and below there at 131.59.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
12/10/2004
February Gold closed down 1.8 at 435.4. This was
1.9 up from the low and 2 off the high.
March Silver finished down 0.057 at 6.743, 0.107
off the high and 0.058 up from the low.
January Platinum closed up 11.9 at 829. This was
1.5 up from the low and 7.8 off the high.
Another strong day for the US Dollar pressured
the metals markets early today, but end of week position squaring pulled the
Dollar back from its highs and lifted gold off of its lows. August gold managed
to move to a new low on the week at 432.90, late moved back above the key 435
support area. A higher than expected PPI reading this morning (+0.5% vs
expectations of +0.2-0.3%) should have been supportive to metals, but the market
is not really focusing on the fundamentals this week. Traders should be aware
that this afternoon’s COT report will probably understate the extent of the fund
liquidation this week, as the data will be as of Tuesday December 7, which was
one day before the selloff began.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (MAR) 12/13/2004: The downside crossover
(9 below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend.
Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. A negative
signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average.
It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot.
The next downside target is 659.1. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is
approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around 682.6 and
692.0, while 1st support hits today at 666.1 and below there at 659.1.
GOLD (FEB) 12/13/2004: Stochastics trending lower
at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are
taken out. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication
the short-term trend remains negative. The market’s close below the pivot swing
number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at 431.6.
The next area of resistance is around 437.3 and 439.3, while 1st support hits
today at 433.5 and below there at 431.6.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Copper finished up 0.85 at 132.70, 0.60 off
the high and 0.70 up from the low.
March copper managed to recover some of its
mid-week losses today, trading into the 132.20-134.10 gap that it left on the
open on Wednesday. The market was able to overcome pressure from the stronger
dollar, which had contributed to its declines earlier in the week and focus
instead a 1,125 metric ton decline in LME warehouse stocks today. The stock
levels had been falling been falling steadily, but briefly rose this past week.
LME stock levels are currently at their lowest levels since 1990. The $0.1540
per pound price collapse since November 29th has eased a burdensome fund long
position and possibly put the market in an oversold posture.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
February Crude Oil closed down 1.61 at 41.36.
This was 0.46 up from the low and 2.14 off the high.
February Heating Oil closed down 7.27 at 123.86.
This was 0.36 up from the low and 8.44 off the high.
February Unleaded Gas finished down 2.46 at
111.89, 4.21 off the high and 1.89 up from the low.
February Natural Gas finished down 0.06 at 6.97,
0.19 off the high and 0.09 up from the low.
January Propane closed down 0.00 at 0.76. This
was equal to the low and 0.01 off the high.
After early gains off news that OPEC planed to
cut production by 1 million barrels per day to get back to the quota target of
27 mbd, energy market went into a tailspin giving back a significant amount of
gains seen this week. Heavy profit taking ensued when Iraq announced that its
Kirkuk pipeline was back in service. Therefore, OPEC’s 1 mbd production cut will
be offset by at least a 450,000 barrel per day production increase from Iraq. At
one point the Iraq pipeline production reached as high as 1 million barrels per
day prior to the November explosion. Therefore, the oil production dynamics may
not change that much. Despite Friday’s sell off, it is still highly risky to be
short heating oil with stocks below year ago levels heading into the coldest
winter time period and with a cold front moving into the Northeast this week.
Given stock levels, heating oil remains vulnerable to any supply glitch as even
a minor disruption in supply could have a big impact. Some private weather
forecasters are predicting a colder winter this season. The technical reversal
keeps the trend down, but it is becoming riskier for the bears to be short,
especially in the heating oil market.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (FEB) 12/13/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market’s close
below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains
negative. The outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a
negative signal. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing
support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside target is now at
39.18. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold
levels. The next area of resistance is around 42.66 and 44.38, while 1st support
hits today at 40.06 and below there at 39.18.
UNLEADED (FEB) 12/13/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. The outside day down is a negative signal. The swing indicator gave a
moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The
next downside target is now at 106.37. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is
approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around 114.94 and
118.57, while 1st support hits today at 108.84 and below there at 106.37.
HEATING OIL (FEB) 12/13/2004: Momentum studies
are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 9-day
moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The outside day
down is a negative signal. There could be some early pressure today given the
market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next
downside target is 117.08. The next area of resistance is around 128.25 and
134.67, while 1st support hits today at 119.46 and below there at 117.08.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Corn finished down 1 3/4 at 201 1/4,
3 1/4 off the high and 1/4 up from the low. May Corn closed down 1 1/2 at 209.
This was 1/4 up from the low and 3 off the high.
March corn rallied over Thursday’s highs on a
short bout of short-covering but selling emerged to knock the market lower on
the day into the mid-session. Increasing ending stocks for the US and for the
world and continued concerns with export competition from feedwheat and from
China helped drive the market into a new contract low into the close. March corn
closed 5 3/4 cents lower on the week. The USDA pegged corn ending stocks at
1.844 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 1.858
billion bushels (range 1.843-1.895) and compared with the November estimate of
1.819 billion bushels. Last years ending stocks were 958 million bushels. While
corn exports were revised lower by 50 million bushels (likely due to slow export
pace and hefty feedwheat supplies), the USDA raised corn usage for ethanol by 55
million bushels to 1.425 billion bushels. World corn ending stocks are now
pegged at 111.7 million tons from 108.7 million last month and 94.7 million tons
last year. While production was up 4.5 million tons, stocks were adjusted higher
by 3 million tons. Support for March Corn comes in at 200 1/2 and 195 with
resistance at 203 and 205 1/2.
Technical Outlook
CORN (MAR) 12/13/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. A negative signal for
trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The
outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal.
The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support
number. The next downside objective is 198 1/2. The next area of resistance is
around 203 and 205 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 199 1/2 and below there
at 198 1/2.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
12/10/2004
January Soybeans finished up 6 1/2 at 533, 6 off
the high and 6 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 6 1/2 at 533. This was
8 up from the low and 5 off the high.
January Soymeal closed up 3.7 at 160.5. This was
3.0 up from the low and 1.0 off the high.
January Soybean Oil finished up 0.23 at 19.9,
0.05 off the high and 0.2 up from the low.
The lack of producer movement after the USDA
report news helped support active buying support after the lower opening. March
soybeans closed near 6 1/2 cents higher on the session and up near 3 1/2 cents
for the week. Strength in meal helped support and the break in corn and wheat
into the close failed to overflow into soybeans. Basis at Decatur jumped 8 cants
on Thursday afternoon as processors try to pry soybeans away from producers. The
USDA news was not bearish enough to keep speculators holding a net short
position and short-covering accelerated on the move over Thursday’s peak. The
USDA pegged ending stocks for the 2004/2005 season at 460 million bushels as
compared with the average trade estimate at 478 million bushels (range 450-535)
and the October USDA estimate of 460 million bushels. Ending stocks last year
were 112 million bushels. World ending stocks are pegged at 60.6 million tons as
compared with 61.4 million tons last month as usage was revised higher. Last
year ending stocks were 38.59 million tons last year. Brazil and Argentina are
expected to produce 103.5 million tons for the 2004/2005 season which is up 17%
from this past season. Support for March soybeans comes in at 529 1/2 and 525
with resistance points at 536 1/2, 542 and 547 1/2.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (JAN) 12/13/2004: The cross over and close
above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned positive. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold
levels. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. The market has a bullish tilt coming into
today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The next downside
target is 521. The next area of resistance is around 539 and 545, while 1st
support hits today at 527 and below there at 521.
MEAL (JAN) 12/13/2004: The daily stochastics have
crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Momentum studies are trending
higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive
short-term indicator for trend. There could be more upside follow through since
the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside objective is
163.5. The next area of resistance is around 161.5 and 163.5, while 1st support
hits today at 157.3 and below there at 155.0.
BEANOIL (JAN) 12/13/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. A
negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing
pivot. The next downside objective is 19.68. The next area of resistance is
around 20.05 and 20.21, while 1st support hits today at 19.79 and below there at
19.68.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Wheat finished down 5 1/2 at 296 1/2, 6 3/4 off the high
and 1 1/2 up from the low. May Wheat closed down 4 3/4 at 303 1/2. This was 3/4
up from the low and 6 1/2 off the high.
For the third time in December, March wheat
managed a low of the day at the contract low at 295. Failure to rally after a
report which showed declining ending stocks is a bearish development. March
wheat closed 8 cents lower on the week. Focus on absorbing the record world
production this past year and a lack of new crop weather problems helped to
limit the buying support early in the session in spite of strength in soybeans.
The USDA pegged ending stocks for wheat at 553 million bushels as compared with
the average trade estimate at 551 million bushels (range 530-578) and compared
with the October estimate of 568 million bushels. World ending stocks are now
pegged at 142.8 million tons from 142.2 last month and 130.9 million tons last
year. World production is pegged at a record 618 million tons as Canadian and
European crops were adjusted higher. The USDA lowered their crop forecast for
Australia by 1 million tons to 21.5 million. Support for March wheat comes in at
295 and 290 1/4 with 299 1/2 and 302 as resistance.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (MAR) 12/13/2004: A crossover down in the
daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Daily stochastics declining into oversold
territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The close below
the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The next downside
objective is now at 289 3/4. The next area of resistance is around 300 1/2 and
306, while 1st support hits today at 292 1/2 and below there at 289 3/4.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
12/10/2004
February Live Cattle closed down 0.10 at 86.60.
This was 0.35 up from the low and 0.35 off the high.
January Feeder Cattle finished down 0.27 at
100.57, 0.52 off the high and 0.47 up from the low.
February cattle inched lower in choppy, two-sided
trade on Friday as the weak tone in the cash market and in the beef market
helped pressure. A lack of aggressive selling after the gap lower opening
triggered some light short-covering and the market managed to close near
unchanged on the day but down near 90 points on the week as traders reacted to
the cash market weakness. Cash cattle in the panhandle traded at $85.00, down
$4.00 on the week. Boxed-beef cut-out values at mid-session were down $1.39 to
$142.67 as compared with 148.84 last week at this time. Slaughter came in at
111,000 head as compared with trade expectations at 112,000-117,000. For the
week, slaughter came in at 627,000 head as compared with 585,000 last week and
614,000 head last week.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (FEB) 12/13/2004: A negative indicator was
given with the downside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Momentum
studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support
levels are broken. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative
short-term indicator for trend. The market tilt is slightly negative with the
close under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 85.900. The next area
of resistance is around 86.920 and 87.270, while 1st support hits today at
86.250 and below there at 85.900.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
12/10/2004
February Lean Hogs closed down 0.07 at 71.60.
This was 0.05 up from the low and 1.15 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished down 0.70 at
96.57, 1.92 off the high and 0.22 up from the low.
February hogs opened higher and managed to run
more than 100 higher on the session but weakness in the cash market and a lack
of follow-through technical buying helped pressure the market into the close.
The weak close leaves the market down more than 350 points on the week. The CME
2-day lean index for the period ending December 8th was reported at 80.11, down
$.65 on the session but up from 78.81 one week previous. This leaves February
hogs at a near 850 point discount to the cash market. Fears of continued
weakness in the cash market as packers adjust for lower ham values helped
pressure the market while the steep discount provides support.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (FEB) 12/13/2004: The downside crossover (9
below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend.
Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close
below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The
daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive. With the
close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish
posture. The next downside objective is 70.700. The next area of resistance is
around 72.200 and 73.070, while 1st support hits today at 71.020 and below there
at 70.700.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Cocoa finished down 18 at 1620, 18 off the
high and 3 up from the low.
Further gains in the Dollar sparked some more
spec liquidation in NY Cocoa today. March cocoa opened lower and managed to
trade up to Thurday’s close at 1638 but never traded higher on the day. Despite
what could be some mildly supportive fundamental news, it is the currency action
that has driven this market since Wednesday. The stronger dollar encourages
traders to sell NY futures against London in arbitrage trading, and the sizeable
spec long position has left the market vulnerable to liquidation, especially as
we go into the holiday season. A report overnight from the ICCO that the world
cocoa surplus would be smaller in 2004/05 due to lower production and better
demand caused no reaction. Official ICCO data is due to be released in January.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (MAR) 12/13/2004: A bearish signal was
triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Stochastics trending
lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support
levels are taken out. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a
close under the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that
the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is 1603. The next
area of resistance is around 1630 and 1644, while 1st support hits today at 1610
and below there at 1603.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Coffee closed down 0.65 at 97.30. This was
0.80 up from the low and 1.70 off the high.
March coffee closed 65 lower on the session and
down 65 points for the week as futures have managed to consolidate recent strong
gains with sideways and choppy trade. Trade was quiet ahead of the Brazil crop
forecast which was released shortly after the close. Brazil pegged the 2005/2006
crop at 30.7-33.0 million bags as compared with 38.6 million bags this season.
The estimate is near the low end of trade expectations. Producers believed the
estimate would be near 30 million bags while trade house estimates were mostly
near 35-36 million bags. While trade houses may not believe the crop is as low
as the forecast, the news should be enough to keep Brazil producers from
aggressively selling cash supply and should help report a resumption of the
uptrend. Cash trade in Europe slowed this week with many dealers hoping for a
correction to extend coverage.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (MAR) 12/13/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A
negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the
pivot swing number. The next downside target is 95.05. The next area of
resistance is around 98.55 and 100.00, while 1st support hits today at 96.10 and
below there at 95.05.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Sugar closed up 0.03 at 8.69. This was 0.18
up from the low and 0.01 off the high.
March sugar closed 3 higher on the session but
down 11 points on the week. The long liquidation selling accelerated after the
lower opening but the selling slowed into mid-session as trade houses came in to
provide some support. The market rallied 18 points off of the lows of the day
into the close and leaves an appearance that a spike bottom low is in place. In
addition, the market managed to close back above key support at 859. Funds were
noted sellers of near 10,000 contracts early in the session. Increased activitiy
in the cash market suggests more active commercial buying on breaks.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 12/13/2004: The moving average
crossover down (9 below 18) indicates a possible developing short-term
downtrend. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price
break if support levels are broken. The close below the 9-day moving average is
a negative short-term indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal up
on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The market tilt is slightly negative
with the close under the pivot. The next downside objective is now at 8.46. The
next area of resistance is around 8.78 and 8.83, while 1st support hits today at
8.60 and below there at 8.46.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
12/10/2004
March Cotton finished down 0.55 at 42.31, 1.44
off the high and 0.21 up from the low.
March cotton opened lower on the session after a
bearish USDA report but a short-covering surge allowed the market to bounce to
100 higher on the session before pulling back. The break and test of the lows
leaves the market in a bear trend and market failed to close higher on the week
to confirm the daily reversal on Monday. The USDA raised yield forecasts which
cause an ending stocks forecast of 7.7 million bales as compared with 7.5
million last month. World ending stocks were revised to 46.53 million bales from
44.55 million last month and 35.5 million bales last year. The increase in
ending stocks is a bearish fundamental set-up for the market and should help
keep the trend down with 40.65 as next downside swing objective for March
Cotton.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (MAR) 12/13/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A
negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. A negative signal was given by the outside day down. The defensive
setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early
weakness. The next downside target is 40.97. The next area of resistance is
around 43.13 and 44.26, while 1st support hits today at 41.49 and below there at
40.97.