Be Aware Of Any New June Money Being Put To Work

The early month-end market action took the

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down
from Friday’s 120.05 close to 119.47 on the 11:10 a.m. ET bar.

Program activity subsided and the SPY worked its way back to 120.05 on very

light volume. Sell programs hit at 3:25 p.m., taking the SPY to a new intraday

low of 119.39 before closing at 119.48, right at the .618 119.54 zone. The SPX

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closed at 1191.50, -0.6%, losing 5.4 points on the program

selling in the last half-hour before closing at 1191.50. The average closing

price for the past six days is 1194.30 vs. the 1193.60 .618 retracement level to

the 1229.11 rally high from the 04/20/05 1136.15 low. All of the other major

indices have also been churning around their .618 retracement zones. The Dow

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was -0.7% yesterday to 10,467, while both the Nasdaq

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, 2068, and
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, 38.08, were -0.3%. NYSE volume was 1.48

billion shares with a volume ratio of 40 and breadth neutral at +80, which

highlights the narrow end-of-month reallocation programs. The sectors were all

red, in line with the SPX, except the XBD, which was +0.8%. The highlight was

the long bond’s
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+1.2% move. The XLU (utilities SPDR) closed unchanged

at 30.03 and is bumping up against the high end of a nine-week trading range

which has a high close of 30.07.

The QQQQ,
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and Nasdaq all finished the

month extended to their +2.0 three-month standard deviation bands. The spread

for the QQQQ between the +2.0 and +3.0 band is 38.25 – 39.25, for the SMH it is

34.60 – 36, and the Nasdaq 2075 – 2125. The SPY closed at 119.48 and the spread

is 120.50 – 123, while the
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, which has lagged as expected, closed at

104.63 with the .618 level up at 106 and the spread of the +2.0 and +3.0 bands

from 107 – 109.50.

Starting today we must be aware of any new June

money put to work the next few days which would push the extended levels even

higher, and then the prospect for a quick sharp downside air pocket is very

high, after which, the Generals will have a high incentive to mark-up their

major holdings into the six-month June-ending report card. I would imagine last

year’s 12/31/04 close of 1211.92 is a magnet.

Have a good trading day,

Kevin Haggerty

P.S. I will be
referring to some charts here:
www.thechartstore.com
in the future.