Is the Dollar going higher? Use this indicator to find out
US Dollar Index:
The NYBOT traded contract saw the commercials
slightly reduce their short positions against the dollar as contract rallied to
above the 90.00 handle. Volume remains high as dollar rally resumed, with the On
Balance Volume indicator continuing to signal to an increasing upside volume
that is adding to the positive long term outlook regarding the Dollar Index.
Speculative positions decreased their net long exposure to 23,685 net long
contracts, while commercials decreased their net short position to 24,390 net
short contracts, as they became caught in a dollar rally. Open interest fell
slightly by 848 contract to 33,302 contracts outstanding.
EUR:
Euro speculative positions remained net long with
6,998 contracts with overall open interest falling by 6,937 contracts from the
previous week to 144,306 contracts outstanding. Commercial traders flipped their
positions to net short with 1,621 contracts as euro failed to hold the 1.2000
handle.
GBP:
British pound traders added to their short
speculative positions as the pair tumbled below the psychologically important
1.7500 figure, with speculative traders currently net short 14,309 contracts.
Commercial traders increased their net long exposure to the sterling with
commercial net longs growing to 17,135 contracts. Open interest decreased, with
4,703 contracts being liquidated, thus brining total to 69,583 contracts
outstanding.
CHF:
Swiss Franc speculative traders added to their
net short positions as net shorts rose to 21,779 contracts. Commercials
increased their net long exposure to the contract with overall net longs rising
sharply to 35,811 contracts, thus adding to a view that the Swiss Franc will
continue to retreat against the dollar. Open interest rose by 2,810 contracts
with 69,574 contracts outstanding.
JPY:
Japanese Yen speculative positions remained net
short as the pair tested the offers above the 118.00 figure, with only 380
speculative short contracts leaving the market, with total net speculative
shorts of 66,302 contracts. Commercials increased their net long positions with
75,469 net long commercial contracts outstanding. Open interest rose by 585
contracts to 195,218 contracts outstanding.
CAD:
Canadian dollar speculative positions remained
net long, with speculators adding 215 contracts to their net long positions,
brining the total to 37,160 net speculative long contracts in the market.
Commercials increased their net short positions with 52,635 net short commercial
contracts outstanding as institutional traders expect the Loonie will remain in
a sideways range. Open interest rose by 3,601 contracts to 108,226 total
contracts outstanding.
AUD:
Australian dollar speculative positions remained
net long, with speculative traders reducing their long bets by another 3,878
contracts to 4,036 net speculative long contracts as the pair tumbled below
.7500. Commercial traders and hedgers once again reduced their net short
exposure to 6,501 net commercial shorts as large institutions most likely expect
the pair to remain range bound. Open interest fell by 1,401 contracts to 61,234
total contracts outstanding.
Sam Shenker
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for Forex
Capital Markets (FXCM). Sam is the author of the Daily and Weekly Technical
Research reports at FXCM. His reports include: Daily Technicals, Weekly Crosses
and the Weekly Chart Pack. Prior to joining FXCM, Sam spent a number of years on
Wall St trading equities, equity derivatives and futures. He also specialized in
research and analysis of high yield bonds, corporate bankruptcies,
restructurings, reorganizations and venture capital.