Early warning signs I see for January
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with
over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary
is the author of
>The Investor’s Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally
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Memo to Barron’s: If your motivation was to put Jack Welch in a bad light
with that hatchet job of a column, you are going to need a sharper hatchet. I
am no H&R Block, but that column was a comedy act at best. He remains one of
the greats. I still love Alan Abelson, though.
I am not so sure I have much to add from my last report. On the positive
front:
WORLD MARKETS are smoking and Japan will never go down again. MAJOR INDICES
are above all major moving averages…and the TRANSPORTS just broke out again.
FINANCIALS continue to be in good shape. It is not very often markets get in
trouble when FINANCIALS are working. WE have hardly seen any distribution.
Until distribution rears its ugly head, the market gets the benefit of the
doubt. Lastly, I am finding more stocks and sectors in good technical shape
than in poor technical shape. So…I am not worried about the coming shortened
holiday week. After that…well, that could be another story.
I remain worried about January because of all the early warning signs I am
seeing. Amongst them are:
Terrible NEW HIGH/NEW LOW FIGURES.
Continued poor A/D figures.
The NASDAQ, NDX and the SOX continuing to underperform…though they are
still in good shape and just consolidating.
Poor sentiment as the masses are awash in year-end bullishness.
But nothing bad happens unless these levels are first taken out…S&P
1249…DOW 10,729…NASDAQ 2230 and then 2213…NDX 1671 and then 1657.
But let’s not harp on any negatives that might be out there right now. It’s
the holidays. We’ll deal with any problems next week.
My staff and I want to wish everyone a safe, happy and healthy new year.
Gary Kaltbaum