This looks like an orderly pullback, so far
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with
over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary
is the author of
>The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally
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editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”…a weekly and monthly
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I love this business! In the last week:
H & R Block
(
HRB |
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Google
(
GOOG |
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company’s organic growth is slowing. The fun part was that every analyst came
out defending the comments. One famous analyst who’s internet stock picks went
down over 95% during the bear was yelping also. We have no clue what happens
here but the worst thing to happen to a momentum growth stock is for their
numbers to decelerate…regardless of the reasons. Interestingly enough, GOOGLE
held right at its 200 day moving average for the second time.
A report came out that downright fraud was committed at Fannie Mae
(
FNM |
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PowerRating). To
show you how the playing field is not level, there have been no perp
walks…even though the fraud was blatant.
The New York Knicks…never mind!
I am happy this is my first report of this week. It has been that spastic. I
don’t know what to make of Tuesday’s action except to state it by the book. The
market had a flat out distribution day…the first since last week’s semi-
follow through day. One day is not cause for concern but a couple of more days
like Tuesday could put the kibbosh on the market. I will make note that the
weakest major index remains the NASDAQ 100 as it took only one down day to get
it below its short-term moving average.
Sector wise: here are some of the areas we would continue to avoid.
HOUSING tried to turn up…and …yonked. HOUSING remains in its own private
bear market and should be avoided for anything but scalped trades.
OILS continue to swoon. The only positive thing I can say right now is that they
have become stretched to the downside and can bounce…but once again, I believe
tis is another area to avoid as any bounce remains sellable. Many COMMODITY
names go under this category.
While GOLD is doing better, GOLD STOCKS continue to be on the defensive. I would
wait until new bases are built…which could take some time.
Lastly, the major INTERNETS are gross. When you have a second, you may want to
look at the charts of
(
YHOO |
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(
AMZN |
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(
EBAY |
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(
EXPE |
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The good news: despite the ugly Tuesday, most other sectors are just in pullback
mode. I suspect we are going to get more in the way of pullbacks but until I see
more distribution days, I will be looking at the BROKERS. I will be looking at
the big DOW names like
(
AXP |
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(
BA |
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(
UTX |
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(
HON |
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PowerRating). I will be
looking at the many strong stocks in the TRANSPORTS. I will be looking at
leading names like
(
BRCM |
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(
SBUX |
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(
TRID |
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(
AKAM |
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(
CELG |
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if they pull back in an orderly fashion.
Now we get to deal with March which has been notorious the past few years for
decent bottoms and tops.
Gary