Daytraders Ride SPX And QQQQ Trend Yesterday

The first two days of July new money are +1.2%

with the +0.9% SPX
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advance yesterday to close at 1204.99. The

first two days of June were +1.1% and May +0.4% (first three days of May were

+1.6%). The Dow
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was +0.7% to 10,372,
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+1.1% to 37.11

and Nasdaq
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+1.0% to 2079.

NYSE volume was 1.37 billion shares with the

volume ratio 67 and breadth +940, both a bit light for the relative price

advance. Energy led the sectors on an OIH (+3.6% close) strong opening that

never looked back, while the XLE was +3.0%. The RTH finished +2.2% due to the

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+3.2% reaction on an announced report. Also outperforming the SPX was

the SMH (semiconductors) +1.7%. The
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dropped -1.0% to 94.30, with the

CRB +1.9% and XAU -2.6%. Gold closed at 427.53, -1.8%, while crude oil went out

at 59.59, +1.4%. The US Dollar was up small, +0.2%, to 90.39 which is into a

92.35 – 90 resistance zone.

Daytraders caught a good move on a reversal of

the
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50-day EMA at 119.37 and 12-month EMA for the QQQQ at 36.67. The

intraday lows were 119.20 and 36.60. It was also an RST long entry for the SPY

above 119.32, which was the high of the opening bar. Both trades were gifts to

daytraders.

On the negative watch list, I see that the XLB

closed at 27.19, below all of its 40-week (28.23), 15-week (28.15) and 5-week

(27.51) EMAs, which is a “Below the Line” situation after having broken its

long-term trendline from the 15.86 October 2000 low. The
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is also a

1,2,3 LT in progress (see chart), closing again below its 103.89 40-week EMA at

103.63. It has also broken its longer-term trendline from the October 2002 lows.

The SPY closed at 120.45, above its now rising 40-week EMA of 117.37 for a +2.6%

spread over the 40-week EMA. The Transportation index ($TRAN) and XLI are in

similar 1,2,3 LT patterns. On the positive side is the IWM (Russell 2000) which

closed above its 03/07/05 weekly high close of 64.34.

The negative divergence of the Dow,

Transportation index and XLB vs. the SPX must be negated if the SPX is to make

any further wave 5 highs above 1229.

Have a good trading day,

Kevin Haggerty

P.S. I will be
referring to some charts here:
www.thechartstore.com
in the future.