If You Missed Some (Or All) Of Yesterday’s Move, Consider This…

  • June 17, 2003
  • Don Miller

Both major markets remain in
their established hourly uptrends with several morning trade opportunities
including a one-minute gap and trap short
trigger off the 60-minute extreme exiting into the 13-minute uptrend (up to 7
points potential), a long scalp off the 13 (5 points), a 10:40 A.M. pullback
scalp off a downtrending three-minute pullback (3 points), and a late morning
reversal when the one, three and 13 aligned themselves with the hourly (4 points
as we go to press). As is typically the case after a strong trend day, the
market has chopped in textbook oscillation form.

While I don’t typically and carefully avoid spelling out every oscillation — as
it would be foolish and impractical to expect traders to take them all or even
multiple entries, and I refuse to join H.A. (Hindsight Anonymous populated by
those in the “press” that never mention stops and where yesterday always looks
like it would have been traded perfectly … but I digress)  — I thought I
would do so today in response to some mail I received last night relating to
yesterday’s +200ish Dow day.

Specifically, a few newer traders seemed to be puzzled and stressed in that they
found themselves sitting on the sidelines yesterday when the market shot up
quickly, then consolidated for four hours before surging into the close in pure
bull cup extension fashion.  Several referred to “missed opportunities”. Yet as
I indicated to one trader, there are typically only two sets of traders who do
well in +200/-200 point days: (1) those that trade the exception, and (2) those
that are trading larger timeframes (e.g., traders trading daily charts entering
on Friday’s 13-minute continuation trigger or Monday’s gap off the daily who
make most of their keep in a handful of days each month).

Simply put, I’d like to remind those folks that there is no such thing as a
missed opportunity and to state the incredibly obvious, market rhythms change
about as often as the New England weather … this ridiculous soggy spring
notwithstanding. Don’t trade extended trends well? Great, wait for the next day
where the market is more likely to chop. Miss the early Monday entry? So what …
you could have been out on the golf course and entered your office at 11:00 A.M.
… same difference.

Yet back to today’s early trade, I simply wanted to reinforce there is an
abundance of opportunity over the course of a week to provide opportunities for
EVERY type of trader. Such is why while the
video and

course
provide a variety of preferred setups and timeframe combinations, the choice of
which will vary by every trader on this planet.

Heading into the afternoon, my bias remains as it has been, which is bullish on
long pullbacks to your appropriate support assuming no divergences, while
locking in profits prudently as the market continues its run for the roses and
the bungee stretches. As I’ve said before, when it stretches this far, it’s not
exactly wise to be on the other end when it snaps.

Lastly, I’d like to use my authorship privilege to congratulate my daughter who
was promoted to high school last night ranking #3 out of 205 students with a
cumulative 3.95 three-year GPA. That means more to me than anything I will ever
accomplish. Put in perspective, trading is a silly little
business. Congratulations.

ES (S&P)   

    
Tuesday June 17, 2003 11:40 PM ET         NQ
(Nasdaq)


Moving Avg Legend:

15MA 60-Min 15MA

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Good Trading!


Don Miller