Putting Up A Good Fight

  • August 8, 2002
  • Gary Kaltbaum


Longer-term, nothing has changed. All the
negatives that I have outlined for you in the past are still there. On the
shorter-term, I do have to say something that I haven’t said in quite a while.
Simply put, you have to love that the market is at the very least, finally
putting up a good fight. I am seeing certain things I have not seen in a long
time.

The Dow
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S&P 500
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The Nasdaq
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Nasdaq 100
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again…so far…have successfully retested their lows.

Many stocks and sectors putting in short-term double bottoms.

Bearishness still hanging around.

This is not much to hang your hat on…but after the carnage, we’ll take it.
Please understand that this move off the lows is less than powerful and can
abort at any time. Volume is not very compelling. It is just my contention that
for the first time in a while, the technical condition of the market is such,
that it can continue upward near-term. No, this is not THE bottom but a chance
for an intermediate rally of unknown time and price.

Now, here is lesson time. How do I
continue to measure the markets when there is so much volatility? After all,
this is not an easy time. The wild swings on an hourly basis are amazing.

Here are a few pointers and a few procedures I go through:







  • We also need to
    watch the Dow & S&P 500.
    It would be another win if the Dow could break above 8762 and the S&P above
    912…and hold. This would be the first time in months that these major indices
    can make a higher high. This could continue to change the tide.

  • We also need to watch the
    NEW LOW LIST. Recently, this list hit in the area of
    1000 names. If the list starts to pick up again, the market will not make it.

  • Watching
    TECH. There is no way the market can get going if TECH continues its
    bungee jump.

All in all, there is a ton of work to be done to repair all the technical damage
that has been done. This will take time. In a perfect world, the market will
take its time as it rallies on high volume and pulls back on light. In a perfect world, leadership will show up and my breakout list will expand. In
a perfect world, my beloved New York Giants win the Super Bowl this year. Too
bad this is not a perfect world.

Until Monday,

Gary