The Real Lipstick on a Pig

Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

I have been amazed at what I have been watching in recent days and weeks. How so many just don’t get it. Just so many trying to put the lipstick on a pig. Since this phrase has been widely used recently, I thought it appropriate as the financial world continues to just not get it. In the past couple of weeks, I have watched:

One famed banking analyst tell the world to buy Lehman Brothers
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stock in the mid-teens because of A BUYOUT! Yes… great work and in-depth analysis for that call. I have watched 2 other analysts downgrade Lehman just this morning… lowering their targets from the 20s and 30s to single digits. Yup… timely info. I have watched how a certain “guru” (think biting the heads off of dolls) called ANOTHER bottom in the financials and the market while also telling you to buy LEHMAN. Do any of these people remember Bear Stearns? What these people and many haven’t learned is that the sheer lack of confidence has left companies like LEHMAN impotent on many levels. Impotent because of everything I have told you in the past. You just can’t lie when you come out with earnings… get called out by a hedge fund manager… then put the losses back on your balance… and have no repercussions. Impotent because of the following statistics:

























































































































Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment in Wall Street

Price of Stock

Price

Counrty

Date of Deal

Amount

Company

on Deal Date

on 8/28/08

% Change

Kuwait

1/25/2008

3 billion

Citigroup

$26.00

$19.08

-26.60%

Kuwait

1/25/2008

2 billion

Merrill Lynch

$54.22

$27.52

-49.20%

Singapore

1/16/2008

6.88 billion

Citigroup

$29.52

$19.08

-35.40%

Singapore

12/24/2007

4.4 billion

Merrill Lynch

$53.90

$27.52

-48.90%

China

12/20/2007

5 billion

Morgan Stanley

$51.37

$40.60

-21.00%

Singapore

12/7/2007

9.75 billion

UBS

$50.48

$22.16

-56.10%

United Arab Emirates

11/26/2007

5 billion

Citigroup

$30.70

$19.08

-37.90%

Singapore

7/23/2007

2 billion

Barclays

$735.00

$326.75

-55.50%

China

7/23/2007

3 billion

Barclays

$735.00

$326.75

-55.50%

Source: A. Gary Shilling & Co. and Yahoo Finance

These numbers speak for themselves. Why would anyone in their right mind continue to invest in financials? Impotent because the stock price is now dictating just like the action in Bear Stearns did. And amazingly, analysts continued to stick their neck out. I have only one fill-in-the-blank question: Dick Fuld is still running the show at Lehman because _______ ?

But it is not just Lehman. Have you watched the stock of Washington Mutual
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? That is the market talking and as you know, that is all I care about. I think maybe just maybe you had better start watching Merrill Lynch
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. DON’T SAY THAT GARY! Well, didn’t John Thain pull a fast one recently when he told everyone Merrill did not have to raise any more capital and a week later were raising over $8 billion. In my world, that violates every law of disclosure. You cannot tell me he raised $8 billion in days.

The bottom line is that there remains a crisis of confidence in the financial world – and for darn good reason. So many of these companies shirked all fiduciary responsibility in the management of their companies… and it did not have to be. I believe there was this smart investor guy named Warren Buffett that scolded all these geniuses for years… telling them “derivatives were a ticking time bomb!” But no one listened. Now the comeuppance. Of course, the comeuppance comes with a $14 million and $9 million severence package of the Fannie Mae
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and Freddie Mac
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CEOS. Sign me up for that job! And speaking of Warren, my favorite quote is now quite appropro… “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” There are now a lot of wardrobes needed.

I continue to see nothing that resembles A BOTTOM in this stock market. And if FINANCIALS come under pressure again, fuggetaboutit.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not reflect those of Wunderlich Securities, Inc. or any of its affiliates. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we can not assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information or any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.