Dollar Fights The Fed
March dollar index futures
(
DXH1 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), from the Momentum-5
List, are continuing their recent run, despite indications from the bond
market that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
Normally, lower US interest rates versus competing European debt instruments
imply a lower dollar as investors
sell bucks and purchase higher yielding European assets. Here, the dollar is
either indicating a less-than-50-point cut or an overpricing of the dollar. The
European Central Bank is unlikely to cut rates soon, keeping continental rates
relatively higher.
March crude oil
(
CLH1 |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is down
despite reports of cutbacks in exports of Iraqi oil from Turkish ports. Iraq, at
times, plays a role in oil prices because it is one of the only members of OPEC
that does not have quotas and pumps as much as 3% of the world’s oil.
Unleaded gasoline
(
HUH1 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
remains in a cup and handle and also could make a larger-than-normal move as
volatility reverts to its mean, a situation brought out by HUH’s Multiple Days Low
Volatility reading.
Natural gas
(
NGH1 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) traded back down
into the gap left nearly six weeks ago when fears of shortages and an unusually
cold winter took the heating fuel to all-time records. Today the market is
focusing on reports from the National Weather Service that the country will
experience above-normal temperatures this week. Nat gas is pausing at its
lap-down level, down 6%. Watch the action here because it coincides with both a
(Turtle Soup) reversal (buy point) as well as the neckline for a head-and-shoulders top.
Cocoa
(
CCH1 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), from the Momentum-5
List, had been higher for much of today’s session but has pulled back after
hitting a new contract high. Cocoa showed an intraday gap down at yesterday’s
closing price, helping to identify the 1056 level as a potential pivot.
March soybeans
(
SH1 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) continue to decline and make good on their
Implosion-5 List
signal