Grains On Elevators
Private forecasts undercutting United States Department
of Agriculture estimates ignited grains. Soybeans, corn and wheat all gapped
open, rallied a few cents, then closed near opening levels.Â
This morning’s Pre-Opening
Grain Outlook called the strong opening in grains. The analysis stated that “the
market appears poised for a post-harvest rally. Strong technical action,
improving outside market influences, strong near-term export demand and ideas
that next week’s Crop Production and Supply/demand reports will be supportive are
all factors which could lead to a near-term ‘post-harvest’
bounce.”Â
Soybeans gapped open and extended another 3 cents
before running into resistance at the recent 10-day high. The previous 10-day
high proved an ideal area to cover or short and fade the move in a 5-point down
refraction. January 2001 beans
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PowerRating) closed 9 3/4 higher at 483 1/4, trading
the rest of the day in what amounts to a flag.Â
For those of you who were at TradingMarkets2000 last
month in Las Vegas at the Venetian, you may have heard Carolyn Boroden’s
presentation on Fibonacci clusters. I spoke with Carolyn today, and she says the
487-489 area is an important area in January beans.Â
Corn, from the Momentum-5
List, also gapped open in a post-harvest bounce. The Dec. contract
held at the 20-day breakout level (at the Turtle Soup potential reversal level),
which implies that this breakout could be legit.Â
Corn led wheat higher and both were also
influenced by strong exports. Dec. closed up 5 at 259 3/4.
Crude oil
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PowerRating), unleaded gasoline, and
heating oil all fell after Israel and Palestine said they would end violence
that has marred their shared lands. The violence has held prices up at a time
when increased OPEC oil output is coming to market and as reserves from the US
Strategic Petroleum Reserve get distributed to some 30 companies designated by
the Clinton Administration. Crude fell .71 to 32.54,
 heating oil
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PowerRating)Â dropped .0091 to .9318, and
unleaded gasoline
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PowerRating) sank .0155 to .8688.
Going the other way in the energies, natural gas
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PowerRating) continues to rally after Wednesday’s AGA report on storage
injections. The report came in as expected, but traders bought as stockpiles
remain much lower than levels from one year ago. Â
In the softs, March sugar
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PowerRating) moved lower
out of a Pullback From Lows
setup. The contract also left a telling engulfing candlestick bar Wednesday
which closed well into the body of day three of the pullback. Sugar traded below
the low of the high-bar day, triggering a (Cooper) 1-2-3-4 pullback setup
Thursday to end down .21 at 9.54.
Setting up for a potentially volatile move,
coffee
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PowerRating) registered on the 6/100 Low Volatility
List. Coffee closed up 7 ticks at 74.25, which will leave at as a volatility
play for Friday. The volatility lists do not designate direction. However,
coffee is on the Implosion-5 List
and signaling downtrends on the
Futures
Trend Matrix. These indicators imply further downside in the futures.