Manufactured Futures Rally
A friendly factory orders report encouraged stock index
futures traders to pull out their wallets and buy, spurring a blow-off-close to
a month-long rally noteworthy for its stealth. Â
The largest monthly slump in manufacturing orders on
record reinforced a growing conviction that interest rates have peaked for the
near-term. Many financial futures participants had been factoring higher
interest rates into prices and the prospect of stable or even moderating rates
is solidifying as the predominate market view. The slower pace of factory orders
provided additional evidence that the Fed’s six rate-moves
higher over the past 14 months have cooled manufacturing demand, and the threat of inflation. September T-bonds
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out of their Pullback From Highs List
signal and finished up 23/32 at 100 13/32.
September S&P futures
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NASDAQ 100 futures
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gained 139.0 to 11,260.0
In a separate report, retail sales rose by an expected
3.3%. The sales figure shows that there is still strong demand and the buying
power which fuels economic growth. Coupled with the surprisingly low factory orders report, the economic data
Thursday points to steadily growing economy with contained inflation,
an ideal climate for a stronger dollar.Â
Dollar index futures
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energies and grains not been so strong recently) gave an indication they could
rally to fresh highs by registering on the
New 10-Day Highs List. The September contract closed at a contract record,
up .49 at 112.57.
Going the other way and from the
New 10-Day Low List, Euro FX
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finishing down .00500
at .88850. The highly correlated Swiss franc
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tumble, tagged new contract lows as well, closing down .0031 at .5748. On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank raised
continental interest rates .25 basis points. Rises in euro-rates are being seen
as a negative for economic growth in the region.
The British pound
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closed at a contract low and made good on its Implosion-5 List
notification to close .0082 lower at 1.451.
Oil observers remained skeptical that OPEC would
step up to the plate and deliver more crude to an oil-starved world. Heating oil
is trading at at a 10-year low and crude is trading at a nine-year low.
Wednesday’s comments from the
Saudi Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC), the committee that oversees oil policy in Saudi
Arabia that there would be a “suitable increase in production” failed
to reassure the market and left
unleaded gasoline
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pulled back after recent, heady gains to contract highs.Â
Gold
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June, following through on a Turtle Soup Plus One reversal five days ago and a
failure of a Pullback From Lows setup Wednesday. The December contract rose 3.9
to 282.1.
September silver
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V-bottom for a gain of 7.3 to 500.3. Â
Â
Dry weather conditions are dampening the perception that grains harvests will
deliver bumper crops. Soymeal
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the leading contract on the Momentum-5
List, had the best percentage gain in the grains rising 3.5%, or 5.8 to
170.9. Also from the list,
November soybeans
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