Index Futures Rocket, Crash, and Land
Stock index futures gyrated wildly after a judge upheld
the Florida
Secretary Of State’s ruling that the deadline and results of two machine
counts in that state’s presidential race would stand. The ruling implied a Bush
victory, spawning an explosive rally in stock index futures. However, the rally
was short-lived as traders realized the ruling would likely only fuel litigation
and prolong court proceedings. Index futures erased all of their gains–triple
digits in Naz 100 and Dow futures–as the market also factored in a profits
warning from telecom BellSouth Corp. Dow bell SBC Communications
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suffered as did firms like Broadcom
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out networks.Â
NASDAQ 100 futures
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setup, then rallied as a handful of the most heavily weighted stocks in the Naz
100 inched a positive finish: December closed a fraction higher at 2939.50. The S&P futures
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have traded over a 30-point range before closing 8.80 lower at 1370.50, and
Dow futures
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10,653.0. aÂ
Also from the Pullback From Lows
List, T-bonds
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a Bush victory will be good for the economy, will encourage growth, and would
keep the Fed on inflation watch brought bonds down from near-contract highs in
an engulfing (candlestick) bar.Â
In the currencies, the Japanese yen
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Canadian dollar
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and closed lower Friday. Given the bear market in equities, the bond sell off,
and the uncertainty over the presidential elections, this is a sign of strength,
and that cash may be waiting on the sidelines.Â
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The December Japanese yen
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of confidence where Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori will be subject to a parliamentary
vote and possible ousting.. As in America, uncertainty in the highest office
tends to hurt the national market and the currency underlying it. The Japanese
economy is also burdened by ballooning debt that the ruling Liberal Democratic
Party has spent on pork construction projects in an effort to revive a moribund
economy. The diffusion index, an indicator of Japanese economic activity, has
declined for the past three months and public confidence (similar to consumer
confidence) is waning. While the Dec. yen rebounded slightly and made good a Turtle Soup Plus One Buy
setup, its weak reflex gain of .0009 to .9231 is a sign of
weakness. Â
March sugar
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third straight day of a rally off lows, but scaled back its gains to close up
just .02 at 9.63. Sugar is on the Pullback From Lows List, so look for another
probe to the downside.Â
December live cattle
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before closing up .325 at 72.950. January feeder cattle
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from the Momentum-5
List also spiked to match the October 24 contract high before pulling back
in a “Soupy” setup to close down .150 at 89.475.
Soymeal
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European Parliament and the Italian government said they favored banning the use
of bone and meat meal as animal feed. Soymeal is a high protein substitute.
Soymeal is set up in a two-month, upper-level base. Friday’s expansion bar, up
6.0 at 175.8, is still below the pivot (the top of the base) and the futures
shows plenty of gaps and laps, defining it as a possible runaway market.
