Flash Moves Possible

  • June 23, 2000
  • Kevin Haggerty

Three days out of
the consolidation and one
quick day back to the breakout level of 3800 for the Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) which
finished -4.2%. The S&P 500 also spent the entire session below its 20-, 60-
and 200-period EMAs on your five-minute chart, so there was no problem deciding
on direction. There was just a mild rally from 11:30 a.m. until 2:00 p.m. that
failed right at the 60-EMA. The S&P 500 then dropped a fast 18 points into
the 3:30 p.m. time zone, and then recovered about 7 points to close at 1452.
Reference points on your intraday charts starting today are: 1453, which is the
20-period EMA, 1456, the 60-period, and 1468 for the 260-period. Nothing good
happens until they rally above there. 


The NYSE volume picked up to just over
1 billion shares and the volume ratio dropped to 29, with only 281 million up
and 696 million down. The breadth also reflected the drop at -865 decliners over
advancers. The Greenspan “Will-He-Or-Won’t-He?” talk takes front and
center into the FOMC meeting on the 27th and the fast-slow economic chatter has
picked up, so we might see some flash moves over the next week, which will
provide excellent intraday or short-term opportunities. Flat
at night for intraday traders, and no overnights unless you have an options
strategy is the better way to control your risk over the next few days. 

Program
Trading Numbers

(September Futures)

Fair
Value

Buy

Sell

21.00

22.20

19.80

Pattern Setups  

Regarding yesterday, nothing exciting
showed up in the setups, as most of all the techs pulled back from their rally
highs and closed at the bottom of their ranges. When that happens, you should
play the game from your intraday five-minute charts and look for that first
morning trend. 

If the slow talk picks up today and
the financials probably will make a little run. the three that I like all
finished in the top of their ranges yesterday (that should tell us something):
American Express
(
AXP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Citigroup
(
C |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and American International Group
(
AIG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Also IBM
(
IBM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (look for that on your intraday chart as it pulled
back to its 200-day yesterday), Hewlett-Packard
(
HWP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (above Wednesday’s
high) and Conexant Systems
(
CNXT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) on a recrossing of the 200. Also America
Online
(
AOL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) on a recrossing of the 50.

On the short side, I’d stay with the
QQQs and if they break the 94 1/2 low, they can run to 91, 92 if we south
today. 

Have a good trading day.