Economy Roars, Dollar Soars

A stronger-than-expected performance by the economy in the
the second quarter sent traders scrambling to buy bucks, sparking a potent rally
in dollar index futures
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that took the September contract to its
highest close in nearly two months. The dollar left strong clues that it could
advance by registering on both the Momentum-5
and
New 10-Day High
lists. Dollar index futures closed .65 higher at 108.54.

The yen
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took the biggest hit vis-a-vis the dollar early in the
session, making good on an
Implosion-5 List
signal to score new contract lows on economic data out of Japan that suggests the economy is still in the doldrums. However, by day’s end the yen recovered to
end two ticks higher at .9242.

Fears that a booming economy will force the Fed to raise
interest rates, earnings warnings, and a huge order to sell a key component stock, threw the Nasdaq 100 futures for a 5% loss, capping the worst week in the
tech contract since April. 

Stellar economic performance blew away second quarter
forecasts, kicking the annual gross domestic product growth rate to 5.2%.
Consensus estimates had forecast GDP to rise at a 3.5% pace. The higher economic
growth figures and other evidence the economy is in overdrive such as this
week’s nine-year record in orders for durable goods, implied to many traders
that the Fed will have to raise rates another notch to avert inflation.

Traders have severely punished companies that fail to meet
expectations and disappointing results by American Power Conversion
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,
down 44%, set a negative tone in tech Friday.

JDS Uniphase, a stock that now comprises 5.44% of the
weighting of the Nasdaq 100
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, took a hit after Royal Philips
Electronics said it sold 5 million shares. JDSU closed 12 3/8 lower at 116 1/4
and was the biggest downer in the contract’s 197.00 loss to 3510.00.

The September S&P futures
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also took a hit,
falling 32.70 and
Dow futures
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fell 104.0 to 10,585.0.

The higher-than-expected Q2 GDP figure was stronger than the
bond participants had expected and sent Treasury futures falling from
three-month highs. A Turtle Soup Plus One
Sell
signal hinted that the Sep T-bond futures could sell off and the
September contract fell 3/4-point to close at 98 29/32.

Natural gas
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should go on the watch list for a continuation to the downside. Friday, the September contract rallied to what is sometimes called a “failsafe line.” The contact touched the line and then finished on its lows. Natural gas was recently on the Implosion-5 list, and now that a counter-trend reaction to the failsafe line is completed, the contract could make a measured move to the late-April highs.

Continuing its awesome run, October sugar
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scored
its eighth gain in 10 days, making good its Momentum-5
reading by adding .11 to 10.91.