5 Distribution Days for the Nasdaq
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor
with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary
is the author of
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also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over
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Well…the WALL STREET JOURNAL runs an article quoting a bunch of strategists
that state the market is going to continue its bullish ways for at least 10
years…or something like it. They come up with all kinds of reasons. I am not a
violent person but I would like to get some industrial super glue and close
their mouths. These types of predictions AFTER moves up…are almost always a
harbinger…and you know what I mean. DOW 100,000? DOW 36,000?
I hope this time it is different.
We have not had to worry about the BOND MARKET in ages. The BOND MARKET just
broke long term support by a smidge. It best pull up its bootstraps and soon.
The TLT broke below 86.60…not a pretty sight.
I am of the belief the Fed is about to lower rates… in the next 90 days.
They are seeing what all of us are seeing…slower growth…restrictive
lending…higher gas…and the most important part of the thesis, 3 month yields
have plunged. This is what will get the Fed off its seat. What does that mean
for the markets? Not a clue.
I do make note of a few things here:
The NASDAQ just experienced its 5th distribution day. Do not ignore this. The
SEMIS are rolling over. In February, ADI went up 10% when they called the bottom
for the business…NOT…gave it all back as as usual, they had no clue what
they were talking about. I do not trust anything coming out of SEMICONDUCTOR
CEOs. They are cheerleaders…and if I was to be nasty…they are liars.
Greenspan opened his trap again saying CHINESE STOCKS were due to be trashed.
This news reversed the market and hurt some Chinese ADRs. If there was any super
glue left over from the strategists, I would like to place some squarely….
Finally, I am now watching the churning that is going on in the DOW/S&P.
Churning occurs when volume picks up without any price progress. This could
indicate sellers are getting a little tougher with the buyers. Keep in mind, and
for the tenth time, the DOW and S&P are way overdue.
There is still a ton of things working…a ton. Lots of good charts but lots
of extended charts. Love the OILS on pullbacks…love some of the COMMODITY
areas on pullbacks…and frankly, love the market if it pulls back in orderly
fashion. I do not want to see more NASDAQ distribution days.
Gary Kaltbaum