Volatility Regimes Don’t Change Overnight
Yesterday was the pause day that often occurs after the market becomes short-term overbought after a big up day. Volatility remains at low extremes and as we have discussed, it can stay this way for a long time. Volatility regimes don’t change overnight which means that until we see a prolonged move higher in the […]
In the Midst of Creating a Mini-Bubble
Volatility expansion day occurred as expected and the market is now overbought. There’s no doubt that the Fed wants to see asset prices higher and is going to remain as accommodative as possible. This is likely now in the midst of creating a mini-bubble but bubbles can last quite some time. As we have been […]
Volatility Expansion Day
Volatility expansion day. Let’s hope it’s good. For a free trial to the Daily Battle Plan, click here!
This May be the Quiet Before the Storm
As I mentioned yesterday, short term historical volatility in SPY has reached extremely low levels and the same holds true for the majority of stocks in the US. This may be the quiet before the storm and that storm will be tomorrow’s Fed announcement. Any movement today will be guessing done ahead tomorrows reports because […]
Statistics Support there will be Movement in Prices
The 10 day historical volatility is nearly half the 100 day historical volatility in SPY which is stating that there is a likelihood of a big 1-2 day move coming. With some global unrest along with the Fed announcement coming on Wednesday, the statistics support the fact that there will be movement in prices. Coming […]
One Interesting Thing I Saw Yesterday
A 15% spike in volatility in two days and now the market has moved to being slightly oversold. As much as everyone expects/hopes for a bounce today, it would be healthier to take another down day into the weekend and flush out a lot of the “we can’t lose being long stocks!” mentality that exists […]
Buying Opportunities are Beginning to Arise
A more than due pullback yesterday. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, more than 99.5% of the stocks in our database had ConnorsRSI readings above 10. When something rare like that occurs it tells us a short-term pullback is likely upon us. Many markets are neutral today and buying opportunities are beginning to arise. Ideally […]
A Testament to the Demand there is for Equities
To put in perspective just how strong (and overbought) this market is, consider the follow. We track over 3500 liquid US stocks and ETFs in our database. Coming into the day today less than a half of one percent have ConnorsRSI readings above 10. This is the lowest percentage we’ve seen and it’s a testament […]
Potential Pause/Pullback
Implied Volatility signaled yesterday a potential pause/pullback over the near term and it would be very normal to see this occur over the next few days. For a free trial to the Daily Battle Plan, click here!
This is now a “Tale of Two Cities”
Thursday and Friday saw one of the largest collapses in the volatility products that have been made when the market was so overbought. Most professional volatility traders (and these guys are smart) began accumulating long volatility positions a few weeks ago in anticipation of a reversal in volatility. Volatility continued to decline and their game […]
Here’s the Lesson…
Yesterday I pointed out that there had been multiple days of a steady climb from early day sell-offs and this is a sign that there’s cash out there ready to get put to work. Any time you see a market (any market) in a longer term uptrend that ignores early morning pullbacks sprinkled in with […]
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