The previous commentary, “Market Cycle Updates”, I alerted you to the next key 8.6 year Pi cycle dates/zones which are July 12 and Nov 21. The SPX closed at 2630 for that 5/4/18 commentary, and is +4.7% to the Friday close at 2755. Both the 3- and 12-month EMA’s are rising and not extremely O/B…. [Read More]
Market Cycle Updates
In the previous commentary, “Current Market Symmetry”, I pointed out the 10/11/17 Pi date as it was 3141 days [3.14] from the 10/6/09 670 bear market low and also the 8.6 Cycle symmetry date at 11/24-25/2017. The SPX was also extremely O/B at the highest monthly RSI 5 in our time and minus any RSI… [Read More]
Current Market Symmetry
The SPX last had a -5.0% correction from the 2194 8/15/16 high to the 2084 low on 11/4/16, which was a pullback to the 12-month EMA. Trump was elected 11/8/16 and the index closed at 2140. There was an 8.6 year cycle leg date at 2016.825 which was 10/28/16 versus the 11/4/16 2084 low, and… [Read More]
Kevin Haggerty’s Commentary for 10/13/17
The SPX made an RST monthly high in 5/2015 at 2135 with entry below the 6/2015 monthly low close at 2063 versus the long-term 8.6-year cycle date of 2015.75 and declined -15% before making a double bottom low at 1812 and 1810 in Jan and Feb 2016. The “Feds” ponzi scheme index has since advanced… [Read More]
Trader Discipline and Risk Management
The SPX hit 2401 on 3/1/17 following the election/year end markup followed by a 3-month trading range of just 3.4%. It was pushed above 2400 and hit 2446 Fri before closing at 2432. The market remains in a prolonged period of passive “so called” investing, and extreme all-time lows in volatility, yet the Fed Ponzi… [Read More]
Geometric Market Timing is the Significant Factor
The SPX made a long term RST top of 2135 in May 2015 at the 1.618 Fib Extension [2137] of the 1576-667 bear market low before declining -12.5% into the Pi Time zone of 2015.75, followed by a rally to 2116, then the final double bottom low at 1810 on 2/11/16. The index has since… [Read More]
Yellen on Hold for Clinton
The SPX is virtually unchanged at 2139 after 17 months of trading following the long-term monthly RST 2135 high on 5/15/15, with the major 5 RSI monthly negative divergence. I said that the risk reward was not positive then, and to significantly cut back long exposure on any buy and hold SPX index portfolios. I… [Read More]
Turmoil in Long Term Symmetry Time Period
The long-term monthly RST signal was triggered in June 2015 following the all time 2135 SPX high in May 2015, and buy and hold index fund investors have made nothing since then which followed my suggestion to significantly reduce equity holdings unless you planned to trade the monthly O/S conditions “if and when”. The index… [Read More]
Risk Reward Remains Negative for Longer Term Equity Exposure
***3/16/16: Due to a technical issue, a previous post was published by mistake. The correct text is now available below.*** The SPX remains in a bear market condition with the 20DEMA,<50DEMA <200DEMA [BTL]which was triggered by the long term RST sell signal following the 2135 5/15 high, and the monthly close below the May low… [Read More]
Long Term Bear Market Condition and Short Term O/S
The SPX finished 2015 at -0.7% and the major RST sell signal was triggered in June with a monthly close below the low of the high month which was May 2015, with the SPX cycle high of 2134.72 The details of the long term Pi cycle symmetry has been discussed with detail in previous commentaries… [Read More]
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