3 Reasons Bonds Rose Today
BOND MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Bonds closed up 0-06 at 112-18. This was
0-10 up from the low and 0-02 off the high.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-020
at 112-145, 0-040 off the high and 0-050 up from the low.
The Treasury market continues to show a
positive tilt even though oil prices fell to an even lower level and the macro
economic anxiety is falling as a result of the lower prices. However, the
weakness in the equity market, ongoing concern of a Dollar Crisis and a split
reading from the New York Fed Manufacturing Index seemed to give some players
the confidence to move into the long side on Monday. We have to think that
concern for the coming PPI reading limited the gains and that sharp decline in
energy prices also served to discourage buying. Some traders suggested that a
massive turnover in the Bush Administration created some uncertainty and that
allowed bonds to creep higher.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator
for trend. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a
slightly bullish posture. The next downside objective is 112-03. The next area
of resistance is around 112-24 and 112-28, while 1st support hits today at
112-12 and below there at 112-03.
TNOTES (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are
taken out. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication
the short-term trend remains negative. The close over the pivot swing is a
somewhat positive setup. The next downside target is 112-060. The next area of
resistance is around 112-195 and 112-235, while 1st support hits today at
112-110 and below there at 112-060.
Â
STOCK INDICES RECAP
11/15/2004
December S&P finished up 3.2 at 1185.9, 0.3 off
the high and 5.4 up from the low.
December S&P E-Mini closed up 3.25 at 1186. This
was 5.5 up from the low and equal to the high.
December Dow closed up 30 at 10562. This was 35
up from the low and 8 off the high.
December Dow E-Mini finished up 29 at 10561, 9
off the high and 34 up from the low.
It was a little surprising that the stock market
failed to extend the recent string of gains as part of the key scheduled
corporate earnings showed positive results and energy prices fell to an even
lower trading range. However, many players were concerned about the overbought
condition of the market and were certainly put off by the large amount of
resignations from the Bush Administration. The trade also expressed concern
about the coming PPI report which might show the need for additional interest
rate hikes. However, we would have to think that progressively lower energy
prices will continue to take the heat off the economy and that in turn should
make it likely that stock prices will soon extend the recent pattern of gains.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 11/16/2004: A new contract high was
made on the rally. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered
overbought levels. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close
over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the
close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 1190.17. With a
reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area
of resistance is around 1188.44 and 1190.17, while 1st support hits today at
1182.75 and below there at 1178.78.
SP EMINI (DEC) 11/16/2004: The market rallied to
a new contract high. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory
which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s close
above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.
It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing
number. The next upside target is 1190.12. The market is approaching overbought
levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1188.75 and
1190.12, while 1st support hits today at 1183.25 and below there at 1179.13.
NASDAQ (DEC) 11/16/2004: The rally brought the
market to a new contract high. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought
territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s
short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The
market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The
near-term upside target is at 1574.62. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the
market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around
1570.75 and 1574.62, while 1st support hits today at 1557.25 and below there at
1547.63.
MINIDOW (DEC) 11/16/2004: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market’s short-term trend
is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market has a
slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside
objective is 10597. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over
70. The next area of resistance is around 10581 and 10597, while 1st support
hits today at 10539 and below there at 10512.
Â
CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December US Dollar finished up 34 at 8405, 10 off
the high and 37 up from the low.
December Euro finished down 0.42 at 129.43, 0.3
off the high and 0.27 up from the low.
December Euro Dollar closed down 0.01 at 97.56.
This was 0.0025 up from the low and 0.0125 off the high.
December Canadian Dollar closed down 0.57 at
83.24. This was 0.28 up from the low and 0.44 off the high.
December British Pound finished down 1.3 at
184.14, 0.99 off the high and 0.14 up from the low.
December Swiss closed down 0.67 at 84.86. This
was 0.16 up from the low and 0.37 off the high.
December Japanese Yen closed up 0.1 at 95.06.
This was 0.23 up from the low and 0.14 off the high.
The Dollar managed a token short covering bounce
Monday primarily off the slightly increased intervention dialogue. So far, the
market doesn’t seem to think that intervention is coming, but the market
certainly thinks that the odds of intervention have increased. The fact that the
Canadian Dollar was down aggressively suggests that something significant might
have changed with respect to long term entrenched trends. However, the Canadian
did see some rather disappointing economic information and that might have
exaggerated what initially appeared to be a simple technical balancing.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 11/16/2004: Daily stochastics turning
lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside
break especially if near-term support is penetrated. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. With the close
higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.
The next downside target is 94.67. The next area of resistance is around 95.24
and 95.40, while 1st support hits today at 94.88 and below there at 94.67.
EURO (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce
lower price action. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests
the short-term trend remains positive. The market’s close below the pivot swing
number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at 128.87.
The next area of resistance is around 129.71 and 130.00, while 1st support hits
today at 129.15 and below there at 128.87.
Â
PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
11/15/2004
December Gold closed down 1 at 437.3. This was 1
up from the low and 2.9 off the high.
December Silver finished down 0.05 at 7.572,
0.048 off the high and 0.077 up from the low.
January Platinum closed up 3.1 at 877.3. This was
2.3 up from the low and 5.5 off the high.
Initially the gold market stood up against the
rise in the Dollar but as the rise in the Dollar showed signs of holding some
longs decided to exit. We also think that some longs were afraid to hold through
the afternoon COT report which is expected to show an overly long small spec and
fund long position. Continued conflict between Harmony and Gold Fields hardly
seems to be supportive as that might prevent a bidding war for some of the
world’s biggest gold players. In order to get a full liquidation in gold, we
suspect that the Dollar will have to manage a close back above 84.63.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a
slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing
number. The near-term upside objective is at 769.0. The next area of resistance
is around 763.5 and 769.0, while 1st support hits today at 751.0 and below there
at 744.0.
GOLD (DEC) 11/16/2004: A new contract high was
made on the rally. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which
will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily
closing price reversal down is a negative indicator for prices. The market’s
close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next upside
objective is 441.6. The next area of resistance is around 439.2 and 441.6, while
1st support hits today at 435.4 and below there at 433.9.
Â
COPPER MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Copper finished down 0.70 at 138.75,
0.65 off the high and 1.25 up from the low.
Copper prices showed some weakness in the face of
sloppy equity market action, weakness in the precious metals and a rising
Dollar. While copper is overbought off its 15 cent rally of the last month, it
wouldn’t appear that short term technical indicators were that overdone. The
copper market continues to see talk about potential Southern hemisphere copper
company buyouts by Asian players and that would seem to provide an underpin to
prices. We have to think that progressively lower energy prices, is certainly
helping to improve the global economic outlook and that should support copper.
Many traders still expect Asian players to be scale up buyers on weakness and
that should limit the downside action in the sessions ahead.
Â
ENERGY MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Crude Oil closed down 0.45 at 46.87.
This was 1.62 up from the low and 0.08 off the high.
December Heating Oil closed down 2.05 at 134.31.
This was 3.81 up from the low and 0.64 off the high.
December Unleaded Gas finished down 1.90 at
123.79, 1.11 off the high and 3.09 up from the low.
December Natural Gas finished up 0.26 at 7.44,
0.01 off the high and 0.46 up from the low.
December Propane closed down 0.02 at 0.82. This
was 0.00 up from the low and 0.02 off the high.
After weeks of carrying the shortage theme
forward the Press has apparently shifted and has now suggested that the market
is in the process of seeing a “glut” of oil. Certainly the market was well aware
of the pattern of US crude stock increases but until the October high, many
specs thought that tight distillate stocks would provide the market with
support. It continued to be clear Monday that the market would not be supported
by potentially bullish developments as the resignation of the US Secretary of
State failed to provide any support to prices. Even more talk about the turmoil
inside PdVSA failed to provide support and that combines with the IEA prediction
of a countercyclical 4th quarter seasonal stock build. In other words, the bears
have control and might drive prices down until there is really a significant
supply threat uncovered.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The gap lower on
the day session chart is bearish and puts the market on the defensive. The
market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next
downside target is now at 44.79. The next area of resistance is around 47.72 and
48.18, while 1st support hits today at 46.02 and below there at 44.79.
UNLEADED (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal
action if it occurs. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an
indication the short-term trend remains negative. The swing indicator gave a
moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The
next downside target is 119.10. The next area of resistance is around 125.89 and
127.49, while 1st support hits today at 121.69 and below there at 119.10.
HEATING OIL (DEC) 11/16/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. The gap lower price action on the day session chart is a bearish
indicator for trend. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the
market. The next downside target is now at 129.07. The next area of resistance
is around 136.53 and 137.96, while 1st support hits today at 132.09 and below
there at 129.07.
Â
CORN MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Corn finished up 2 1/2 at 202 1/2,
2 1/2 off the high and 1/2 up from the low. March Corn closed up 2 3/4 at 214.
This was 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.
The gap higher on Monday is a bullish technical
development but the close for March corn was 2 1/4 cents off of the highs and
the close was back under the 40-day moving average. September 1st was the last
time the March corn has closed above the 40-day moving average. Funds were noted
buyers of near 15,000 contracts. The surge in soybeans and follow-through
technical buying helped support the bounce with active speculative
short-covering noted in spite of weak export news and news that China sold more
corn to South Korea overnight. Weekly export inspections came in at 37.3 million
bushels as compared with trade expectations at 40-45 million. Cumulative exports
have reached 16.8% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as
compared with 20.7% on average for this time of the year. Gulf basis was steady
to higher. Traders expect the weekly crop progress report, released this
afternoon, to show corn harvest near 85-88% complete. March corn support levels
come in at 214 and 212 1/2 with resistance at 215 3/4 and 220 1/2.
Technical Outlook
CORN (MAR) 11/16/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. A positive signal for trend short-term was
given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. If yesterday’s gap higher on the
day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. Market
positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The
near-term upside objective is at 217. The next area of resistance is around 215
1/4 and 217, while 1st support hits today at 212 3/4 and below there at 211 3/4.
Â
SOY COMPLEX RECAP
11/15/2004
January Soybeans finished up 10 3/4 at 535 3/4, 4
1/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 12 at 541
1/2. This was 4 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.
January Soymeal closed up 4 at 153.7. This was
2.7 up from the low and 0.3 off the high.
January Soybean Oil finished up 0.57 at 21.51,
0.1 off the high and 0.23 up from the low.
The gap higher on a Monday and a gap above the
40-day moving average was seen as supportive technical action. Continued
concerns with Asian rust for next years crop and follow-through speculative
buying (thought to be short-covering) from Friday’s positive technical action
helped support the bullish tone early in the session. Weekly export inspections
came in at 40.5 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 39-42
million bushels. Cumulative shipments have reached 27.8% of the USDA forecast
for the season which is right in line with normal for this time of the year. The
NOPA crush for the month of October was reported at 148.1 million bushels as
compared with trade expectations at 140-146 million and this news added to the
positive tone. Oil stocks were pegged at 879.4 million pounds from 1.043 billion
last year. Oil yields fell to 11.38 pounds per bushel from 11.52 in September.
Traders look for the weekly crop progress report to show harvest near 95%
complete. Cash markets were steady and there were 66 deliveries this morning
against the November contract. According to Reuters, test results today
confirmed that soybean rust has spread to three more Louisiana fields and 1
Mississippi field. January soybean support points come in at 534 and 529 with
541 and 548 as next resistance.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (JAN) 11/16/2004: The market now above the
40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Positive
momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action.
The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend. If yesterday’s gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional
buying could develop this session. Market positioning is positive with the close
over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 542 3/4. The next area
of resistance is around 539 and 542 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 532 1/2
and below there at 529 3/4.
MEAL (JAN) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a
close over the 9-bar moving average. The gap up on the day session chart gave a
bullish indicator and more follow through could be seen this session. The
market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication.
The near-term upside target is at 156.4. The next area of resistance is around
155.8 and 156.4, while 1st support hits today at 153.6 and below there at 151.9.
BEANOIL (DEC) 11/16/2004: Positive momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The
market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend
remains positive. Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold
yesterday’s gap on the day session chart. Market positioning is positive with
the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside target is at
21.80. The next area of resistance is around 21.67 and 21.80, while 1st support
hits today at 21.35 and below there at 21.15.
Â
WHEAT MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Wheat finished up 3 1/2 at 306 1/4, 2 1/2 off the
high and 5 3/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 4 at 317. This was 6 up
from the low and 2 off the high.
Strength in the other grains helped to support
the market after the lower opening as speculative short-covering emerged to
support. News that the Australia drought had eased helped to pressure the market
early but speculative buying more than offset the early sell-off. Cash bids were
firm for soft red wheat in the country due to tight producer holding. Weekly
export inspections came in at 18.498 million bushels as compared with trade
expectations at 17-20 million. Cumulative exports have reached 54.6% of the USDA
forecast for the entire marketing year as compared with 48.9% on average for
this time of the year. The appearance of a low in Chicago wheat and a series of
“higher lows” for KC wheat is a friendly technical development. Soft red wheat
ending stocks were revised higher to 51 million bushels on Friday from 41
million last month and 64 million last year. March wheat needs a move over 323
(40-day moving average) to see some fund short-covering. March wheat support
comes in at 315 1/2 and 311 with resistance at 323 and 325 1/4.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (MAR) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close above the 9-day moving
average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. Market positioning is
positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside
objective is 308. The next area of resistance is around 321 and 324, while 1st
support hits today at 313 and below there at 308.
Â
LIVE CATTLE RECAP
11/15/2004
December Live Cattle closed up 0.85 at 86.47.
This was 0.72 up from the low and 0.12 off the high.
January Feeder Cattle finished up 0.85 at 102.85,
0.15 off the high and 0.70 up from the low.
February cattle bounced 67 points to recaptures
much of the losses from Friday as a more positive tone for beef demand and the
uptrend in beef prices helped support. A lower showlist this week combined with
sloppy, rainy weather in the plains are factors which could support the cash
market this week. Boxed-beef prices were up $1.09 to $135.15 at mid-session as
compared with $130.82 a week ago. A lack of a weather premium, a drop in weights
last week and the uptrend in beef are all seen as positive fundamental
developments. Support for February cattle moves up to 87.95 which a resumption
of the uptrend would leave 94.37 as longer-term objective with next short-term
resistance at 89.32.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive
short-term indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt coming into
today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside
objective is 87.170. The next area of resistance is around 86.900 and 87.170,
while 1st support hits today at 86.070 and below there at 85.500.
Â
LEAN HOGS RECAP
11/15/2004
December Lean Hogs closed down 0.70 at 74.77.
This was 0.42 up from the low and 0.67 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished down 0.50 at
100.90, 1.30 off the high and 0.15 up from the low.
While February hogs closed 32 points higher on
the session, the market is still under the negative technical influence of the
reversal from a contract high on Friday. The reversal along with the overbought
condition of the market (February hogs closed 620 points above the 40-day moving
average) leaves the market vulnerable to long liquidation selling if support
levels are violated. Cash markets were $1.00-$1.50 higher at terminals which
helped to provide some short-term support. The CME 2-Day Lean Index for the
period ending November 11th was reported at 75.29, up $.11 from the previous
session and up from 73.27 the previous week. The discount of futures to cash
helped support but bear spread activity dominated the trade.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The close below
the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The near-term upside objective
is at 75.920. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70.
The next area of resistance is around 75.320 and 75.920, while 1st support hits
today at 74.250 and below there at 73.750.
Â
COCOA MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Cocoa finished up 57 at 1751, 4 off the
high and 45 up from the low.
After showing some weakness late last week, the
cocoa market managed to right the ship on Monday. Even in the face of regional
African Peace Keeping efforts, the cocoa market seems to have rejected the
downside efforts seen late last week and managed a rather impressive bounce. It
seems that the market was being fueled off rumors circulated by the rebels that
the Ivory Coast government was preparing for another attack of Northern areas.
Supposedly the Ivory Coast government was moving troops into the Northern zone,
while the Press might have construed the protection of cocoa trucks as a
military show of force. Also supporting prices Monday were reports that the main
port in the Ivory Coast (Abidjan) was seeing its arrival rate to be only 1/3rd
of level that was reported a year ago. Dampening the upside move Monday was the
fact that shippers failed to observe a holiday Monday and managed to move some
cocoa through the marketing channel.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (DEC) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce
lower price action. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above
the 9-day moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number,
the market is in a moderately positive position. The next downside objective is
1692. The next area of resistance is around 1775 and 1789, while 1st support
hits today at 1727 and below there at 1692.
Â
COFFEE MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Coffee closed up 11.15 at 91.65. This
was 11.40 up from the low and 3.35 off the high.
The coffee market surprised the trade with a
significant upward breakout on the charts. It seems like the funds were the main
catalyst behind the rally but some news outlets reported that fund buying was
coming off the reports of an earthquake in Colombia. We doubt that the
earthquake actually damaged the infrastructure in Colombia but that must have
been what some players were anticipating. It should also be noted that last week
the ICO pulled down expectations for the coming crop and increased the demand
projections and that apparently gave the market a bullish posture to work from.
Maybe the closure of the Sao Paulo market for holiday gave the other coffee
markets an added measure of volatility. Some traders suggested that buyers were
anticipating a sharp decline in Green Coffee warehouse stocks at the exchange.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (DEC) 11/16/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in
overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market’s
close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The
near-term upside target is at 104.35. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is
approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 99.00 and
104.35, while 1st support hits today at 84.30 and below there at 74.90.
Â
SUGAR MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
March Sugar closed up 0.17 at 8.69. This was 0.18
up from the low and 0.02 off the high.
Not to be outdone by other soft commodity
markets, the sugar market also managed an upside breakout on the charts.
Supposedly the London sugar market led the way higher on short covering and the
US market followed. It is a little surprising that ongoing weakness in the
energy market didn’t discourage buying but the trade is now expected cash
activity to bolster prices. Maybe the Candy Company buyout activity and the
general improvement in the economy are prompting an improvement in forward
looking demand, and that is fostering additional price gains. Seeing the March
contract manage a climb back above 875 might prompt technical fund buying
signals and that could give the market an added lift in the coming sessions.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 11/16/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average
suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market’s close above the 2nd
swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The near-term upside objective
is at 8.85. The next area of resistance is around 8.78 and 8.85, while 1st
support hits today at 8.59 and below there at 8.45.
Â
COTTON MARKET RECAP
11/15/2004
December Cotton finished up 0.57 at 44.91, 0.59
off the high and 0.51 up from the low.
The cotton market appeared to garner some short
covering following the USDA report reaction last week. Apparently some traders
think that high plains cotton is being threatened slightly by wet and cold,
which is a little surprising given the big domestic and international production
estimates last week. However, some traders are concerned that crops are behind
and that more bad weather could keep that situation in place. Therefore, it
isn’t totally shocking that some shorts decided to exit long held positions.
Supposedly some roll over activity from the December to March contracts was also
providing some support. The anticipation of the weekly crop conditions report
yesterday afternoon could certainly given the market a short covering impetus in
the action Monday.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (DEC) 11/16/2004: The stochastic indicator
is rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support higher
prices. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The near-term upside target is at 46.03. Short-term indicators
suggest buying dips today. The next area of resistance is around 45.46 and
46.03, while 1st support hits today at 44.36 and below there at 43.83.