And We’re Off!
On your
marks…get set…may the pullback begin!
The Naz, up 21% over 22 days
bottom-to-top, has surrendered 5.8% in two sessions.
The glamours were shot, losers
clubbing winners by 7 to 1.
For the intermediate-term operator in
aggressive growth stocks, a session like Wednesday’s can be downright
disheartening.
If you let it.
Although many have become more
short-term oriented than ever before — and rightly so, given the elevated
volatility and compressed price movements since 1998 — it does pay to take a
step back and look at the, dare I say, bigger picture.
A glance at the nearby charts
indicates that, at this moment (no
guarantees as to what the next moment will bring), some of the leaders have not
fallen off a cliff yet.
That is, when you compare how far
they’ve fallen in relation to the big, six-month bases they’re in the process of
building.
Thus, for many of Wednesday’s
drubbings, they didn’t represent anything more than a normal pullback within an
otherwise-constructive period of repair following the heavy, 41% shaking that
the Naz underwent in just 10 weeks from March 10 to May 24.
The point here is that, while you
positively must honor your sell stops on
each and every position you may hold, I wouldn’t get overly negative on the
prospect of the current comedown being an extensive one.
The Comp’s intermediate trend, or the
trend over the last several weeks to several months, does remain up.
For that reason, it is not prudent to
try and predict that the Naz topped "for good" on Friday, Sept. 1.
Maybe it did and maybe it didn’t.
Our primary job as traders is to let
the market be the judge and jury, which mandates that we keep an open mind at
all times.
You should continue to closely watch
the Naz as well as the leaders, many of which are routinely mentioned in this
space and other spaces on the TradingMarkets.com site, for signs of further
distribution.
For example, you should be able to
detect whether or not a base handle is becoming overly elongated, whether
distribution days in the Naz overpower accumulation days, etc.
In general, you will not get into too
much trouble if you keep an eye on the ball at the expense of all else.
This means, of course, that you must
put your own opinion in your back pocket.
And leave it there.
Otherwise, although I don’t factor
economic fundamentals into my trading decisions, I remain encouraged by the
backdrop of easing Treasury yields.
Yields are certainly a key
fundamental, but they are also a market-based
barometer, rendering them more vital than other fundamentals.
I could go on and mention the hefty
levels of productivity, but that would be beside the point.
Even more encouraging is the equity
market’s response to all of this.
For without some sort of
acknowledgment on the market’s part, the best productivity news in many years
matters little.
Namely, the financials — brokers and
banks, in particular — are acting superbly, as are the utilities.
Of course some might posit that the
brokers are rising on takeover speculation and little more…however, if either
a recession or higher rates were on the market’s radar scope, there would be pas
de brokers.
It is to be noted that second entries
often provide the lower-risk play.
Speaking of second entries, Andrx
(
ADRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
scooted to a new high Wednesday on its second attempt out of an eight-week
ascending triangle, a rare standout.
Elsewhere, a few tertiaries plowed
ahead.
The fact that these shares recently
made their debuts, qualifying them for speculative status, is what is notable
here, and was one of the only positives on a sobering day.
Marvel
(
MRVL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was one, pulling
out of a six-week cup-with-handle on above-average trade.