Another Day, Another Disappointment…or 3 or 4

They can say
that JDSU’s inclusion in the S&P siphoned monies out of other S&P
stocks, contributing to Wednesday’s markdowns.

Or they can say that it was
disappointing earnings-related news that did it.

As traders, however, it doesn’t matter
why.

All we’re concerned with is that it did.

Though there was distribution in the
Naz, you didn’t have to look at the index all day long to know something was
amiss.

The leaders told you that.

For example, Applied Micro
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couldn’t follow through on Tuesday’s less-than-robust breakout of a four-month
cup-with-handle.

Intel
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was distributed for
the fifth time in eight days.

Meanwhile, our Group of Seven early leaders (see
my June 6 column
for an explanation) are looking haggard, to put it mildly,
and not what you’d expect from stocks of their ilk.

SDL
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is one, putting in
what’s referred to as a "key reversal day" on Monday, dropping 17% off
its peak on an intraday basis. In afterhours trading following Wednesday’s
close, it lost another 10 points following a positive earnings surprise.

Keithley
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is
another Group of Seven member. Monday it broke down out of a head-and-shoulders
top pattern on its third day of distribution.

Note the volume dry-up on
Keithley as it tested its early-July high. This is similar to what I spoke about
in Tuesday’s column related to Corning
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.

Among the other G7s, Linear
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has shown choppy action, experiencing distribution in five of the past eight
days.

Corning, as discussed Tuesday, has its
work cut out for it.

Newport
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, though choppy,
remains near its high, while Techne
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came all the way back to its
original pivot point around $100 Wednesday.

The final G7 member, Sanmina
(
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,
has hung in there like a champ.

"My buying wasn’t the best. I
bought some extended stocks and paid the price
."

For those of you that are fairly new
to trading the intermediate term, you might be able to relate to the above
quote.

For those of you that are experienced
traders of the intermediate term, you might be able to relate to the above
quote.

The quote is from none other than
someone whose ability I respect quite a lot, a top player.

In fact I can’t remember another
intermediate advance in which more people have gotten nickeled-and-dimed as much
by failed breakouts, buying extended stocks that didn’t extend after entry, etc.

Among the names, Avanex
(
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was just another promising glamour whose handle has elongated in the past week
(Digital Lightwave, Globespan, Human Genome, and Medarex are others).

Rational Software
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was
another.

Human Genome
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came under
distribution, nullifying its late-June handle.

Brocade
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was a rare bright
spot among vogue names, up on brisk trade.

ONI Systems
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was another.

Interwoven
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, building a
two-week shelf, acted very well as it went out with a slight setback.