Bears Out Today In The T-bonds and S-franc
T-bond futures
June T-bonds [USM9>USM9] lost 15 ticks today as bearish sentiment continued to weigh on the market.
New home sales were down 2% from February, but the bulls were not
interested in this bit of news. The Fed meets tomorrow and is generally expected to remain steady on their interest rate policy.
We went long today near the close around 120 5/32. We think after the Fed meets there will be a short-lived rally back up to the 121 10/32 level. That’s where we will try to exit our longs.
Currency futures
The June Swiss franc [SFM9>SFM9] was off 20 ticks and the Euro [ECM9>ECM9] futures were off a little as well today as the NATO air strikes continue to weigh on European currencies.
We still hold our longs in the Swiss franc from Friday, but we are looking to exit at the .6795 level, which is just above the market. We suspect the franc is a little weaker than anticipated, and we want to get out with a small loss.
The trend-following traders are heavily short this market and will add some short-term pressure to any rally that develops. We want to wait for them to get
short and then take another stab at the long side.
S&P 500 futures
The June S&P [SPM9>SPM9] contract had strong day, reflecting the strength of the overall stock market today and the Dow’s ability to (finally) close above the 10,000 mark. But we remain on the sidelines until a low-risk entry trade point presents itself. We have been waiting for quite a while, but right now patience is the best course.
Next scheduled update: Wednesday, March 31, 1999
(Check “Today’s Schedule” every day on our home page to find out about additional updates.)