Bell Heads South

Another gap-down short candidate
emerged Friday after BellSouth sold off on negative overnight news.

After
Thursday’s close, BellSouth
(
BLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
said it expects earnings growth in the
neighborhood of 7% to 9% in 2001, down from previous guidance of 13% to 15%. The
company blamed the lowered outlook on higher wireless and DSL costs.

Shares gapped
down and fell 7 1/8 to 42 1/8 on 9.7 million shares, triple normal volume.
Institutions dumped this stock in droves.

In keeping
with a
gap-down
short
candidate, the stock broke below its 50- and 200-day moving
averages. That means that, on average, most shareholders who bought BellSouth
over the past 50 and 200 days are probably underwater. Losses tend to transform
bulls into bears, increasing selling pressure on the stock.

BellSouth also ended the day near the
bottom of the day’s trading range. In other words, no bargain hunters came to
the stock’s rescue. When you short a stock, you want the existing shareholders
under pressure to sell and cut their losses, and everyone else staying clear,
other than to join you in shorting the stock.

All charts in this commentary use a
logarithmic scale. Daily charts display 50-day moving averages of price (in red)
and of volume (in blue). Some daily charts also display a 200-day moving
average (in black).

All stocks, of course, are risky. In
any new trade, reduce your risk by limiting your position size and setting a
protective price stop where you will sell your new buy or cover your short in
case the market turns against you. For an introduction to combining price stops
with position sizing, see my lesson,
Risky Business
. For further treatment of these and related topics,
you’ll find extensive lessons in the Money
Management
area of TradingMarkets’ Stocks Education section.