Bonds Rally, S&Ps Remain Quiet

T-bond futures

We got the relief rally we were looking for in the June futures [USM9>USM9] after the Fed meeting (see Monday’s update). However, we didn’t get to 121 10/32 level (our exit area) yet. We will give it another day.

Bonds got hit today after the unexpected rise (to 57) of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. This came despite two other reports (Factory
Orders and fourth-quarter GDP) that were positive for bonds. This report
confirms our longer-term view that the economy is heating up and that bonds are in a long-term downtrend. We still hold our long-term short position.

Currency futures

We exited our long position in the June Swiss franc [SFM9>SFM9] today at the .6800 level, breaking even on the trade. The market was ready for a bounce, but now that it has come we have re-entered our long-term short in the contract on the close.

Reminder: We are waiting for the ECU futures to gain volume before
we start trading them. For now, we are using the Swiss franc as a proxy.

S&P 500 futures

We were looking to sell the June contract [SPM9>SPM9] today on a rally but were left behind again. While this market has not given us any trades lately, we have to remember in times like these that it has been a great profit center over the past couple of years.

Next scheduled update: Monday, April 5, 1999

(Check “Today’s Schedule” every day on our home page to find out about additional updates.)