Bulls Put Down The Party Horns For An Emergency Meeting
Let’s
see…Motorola came out (way) after the bell today to announce to
remind the world that
perhaps the rumors of the Bear’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Should we
consider statements from Motorola such as “The U.S. downturn
is spreading to the rest of the world” important? Or should we buy
stocks because Mr. Alger
on CNBC (who lost roughly 49% of his clients’ money last
year) told us that we have had a bottom? Should we be concerned by the
fact that Motorola’s
orders were down 10% this quarter, personal communication
sales down 29%, semiconductor orders fell 47% and the fact that their
operating net margins on sales are at -16%? That means it is difficult
for them to actually make money because they lose 16% on everything
they sell. Maybe the key
to this “new math” is volume. No, wait, we saw that
before with the Internet stocks and it didn’t work that time.
Even Motorola, that today reported its
first quarterly loss in 16 years, couldn’t
pull this one out of the fire in the face of an increasingly deteriorating
semiconductor business cycle. Nonetheless, we should remain confident
that the bullish analysts who dominate our senses are correct in their
forecast of a market bottom at these levels and a turn-up in global
demand and the related
business cycle later this year. Yeah, right. What these
analysts don’t tell us is that this cycle may last from 2-3 years.
Interestingly, we witnessed nothing
short of “panic buying” today as stocks were
the place you had to be. Early this morning, CIBC World Markets raised
their equity allocation in
their model portfolio to 75% from 55% and helped fan
the flames to the “train is leaving the station” hysteria. In my
commentary
of April 5, I stated “I have a feeling that this rally may last into
the end of the week and perhaps into early next week.” Well, the Bulls
sure did have their fun
and reminded us that they haven’t “lost their lovin’ feeling”
for mindlessly chasing and bidding up stocks on no fundamental or factual
merit. This, my friends, is how opportunity is created. As long as
we keep getting these
sharp bear market rallies in which stocks appreciate 50+%
in just a few sessions, we will keep making insane profits shorting these
stocks each time the music
stops and people run in search of chairs. With 90 minutes
remaining in today’s trading session, you could clearly see the distribution
that was taking place by the commercials as retail speculators hungrily
gobbled up offers on any slight weakness. The professionals do such
a fine job of creating an
unquenchable thirst to buy in the retail crowd that had
to watch prices rise steadily and relentlessly the entire session. That
is why they are
professionals and have homes in the Hamptons.
Looking to the index voted “most
likely to catch a Nancy Kerrigan crack on the
knees over the next 12 months”, the Dow Jones Industrials.
Not much to say here other than we
have had a rally from an extremely oversold
technical level in which we are not nearing significant resistance.
It is difficult to
ascertain how the DJI will not retest its 9100 lows if not exceed
them. We have obviously not experienced a “throwing in the towel”
type of scenario in which
all stocks and sectors are sold indiscriminately. Perhaps
such a scenario will clear the slate for a 2-3 month uptrend through the
summer months.
What is the Volatility Index telling
us?
As the chart shows, the VIX is clearly
in an uptrending channel and has pulled
back to an area of regression line support. The brief time it spend
below 33 today should
probably be the lowest levels it sees in the near future.
As such, it looks poised to spring back to the upside and resume its
pattern of higher highs.
Long/Short Watch: Motorola
news should result in early weakness in the handset manufacturers as
well as the SOX index.
With today’s broad rally, look for stocks which are in
downtrends and have rallied back up to resistance levels/areas. There are
literally dozens of them,
so do your homework. How the market will interpret and
react to Motorola’s train wreck of a quarter remains to be seen.
Goodnight,
P.S. Hey, Dave Landry, thanks for
letting everyone know about my attending Saliba’s
seminar. On a side note, I heard Joe Kernan do a report on a new biotech
firm that is developing a new family of antibiotics for people who
have developed resistance
to standard ones. This looks like good news in helping
you clear up all those nasty sores you told me aren’t reacting to the
massive penicillin doses
you’ve been taking. Keep your chin up, buddy. We’re
all pulling for you!!