Election Focus
All eyes are still focused on the election, and ahead of this, S&Ps are down 1450 points at 1358. Volume has been heavy overnight. Adding fuel to the fire is Hewlett-Packard
(
HWP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), which missed earnings estimates by $0.10/share.
We’re sitting right at a key area. Above it we see 1360, a key at 1363, 1365, Friday’s low at 1370.50, 1372.50, 1375, a key at 1377.50 and a major at 1380.50. On the downside, we see a major area at 1357-1357.50, 1352.50, 1345.50-1346, 1344 and 1340.50. 1340.40 is an 88% retracement of the recent up move from 1324.80 to 1454.80. The market likes to retrace about that amount.
As for the NASDAQ, it’s hard to find some good news out there. We closed on our low for year following a violent sell-off. Right now, we’re trading down 8500, which puts us at 2809. In addition, we settled the futures just above the cash level, so this is actually a little bit worse. Where do you go from here?
A couple things: After the initial rush to sell this morning, will the market be able to stabilize? If not, the cause will seemingly be the desire to salvage something out of this year. What we mean is the market will begin to sell the stocks that are even higher on the year, the relative-strength leaders. If that happens, it could be extremely violent to the downside.
Now, if we take a look at the cash, we made a low in October of 2300. We do not think the market will trade all the way back down there. However, an area to look for in the cash would be, first, 2601.80, which is an 88% retracement of the upmove from our October low of 2300 to our index high of 4816. That 2601.80 is our target level.
For today, the key thing about support is whether or not it will really be support. The first level, though, is limit down at 2799. If limit down does not provide a bounce, look for a trade down to 2725. Along the way, we have support between 2765 and 2750. Under that, we have support between 2733 and 2720. Double limit today resides at 2704.
The big resistance we think is going to be unchanged at 2894. We don’t feel comfortable giving daytrading resistance based on numbers that have only traded on Globex. We’d rather wait until the market begins to trade. Above unchanged, 2905-2920 is critical, and then 2950.
What’s more important is between 2950 and 2980 is where we traded most of the day Friday. In addition, the market was unable to get through 2980 all afternoon on Friday. We need to close above this level — on an hourly or an on a daily basis — for the pressure to be off in the short run.
Two things about trading today: 1. It’s still a news-dominated market. 2. Expect some sharp countertrend moves. We may open at limit down, rally substantially and then go back, etc., etc. A move above 3000 or a move below 2750 would surprise us. If it occurs, your best bet is to go with the momentum.
As for the Dow, on HWP earnings this market should open about 100 points lower, taking us toward our critical 10,500 level. If this level is broken, we go to a neutral bias.
Do you have a follow-up question about something in this column or other questions about trading stocks, futures, options or funds? Let our expert contributors provide answers in the TradingMarkets Question & Answer section! E-mail your question to questions@tradingmarkets.com.
For the latest answers to subscriber questions, check out the Q&A section, linked at the bottom-right section of the TradingMarkets.com home page.