Futures Point To A Weaker Open
INTEREST RATES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to
AM
BONDS
+12 — The stock market is very weak this morning, and the trade is generally
expecting the Fed to leave the risk bias pointing to recession, instead of
inflation. In other words, the Fed is probably closer to cutting rates than
raising interest rates. We seriously doubt that the Fed will act, especially
since the President didn’t shift the
into an imminent war position.
STOCK INDICES
OVERNIGHT
CHANGE to
AM
S&P
-1200, NIKKEI -194, FTSE
-53 — The European stock markets are now off to their "worst start" ever, which
is a fact that is being trumpeted by the press this morning. With the anxiety in
the European headings, we expect similar anxiety to unfold in the
About the only positive note today is that Philip Morris (its old name) is
higher in
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
DOLLAR: The Dollar has two problems today. The first problem is that
the Dollar rallied Tuesday, apparently without basis and now may have to give
those gains back. Second, it would seem that war will not be out of the way of
the US economy until after the Feb. 5 UN meeting. We also think that dialogue
from the US Fed this afternoon might spark an attack on the Dollar, as the Fed
will probably highlight the risk of recession. Even if the US Fed decides to cut
rates and surprises the market, the
Forex
trade might take that as a dire signal on the
economy and attack the Dollar off a deflation risk. In other words, the Dollar
once again finds it very difficult to come up with something that could change
the trend. In fact, the trade appears to be willing to sell the Dollar right up
into and through the FOMC meeting. Because the Dollar gapped lower today, most
of the erroneous rally Tuesday has already been extracted, but we suspect that
new lows are in the offing.
EURO: The well-entrenched up trend looks to
continue, with the temporary correction seen Tuesday providing a shelf to even
higher Euro prices ahead. Top of the trend in the March Euro comes in at 109.33
today. Apparently significant declines in European equities isn’t about to
undermine the Euro. Furthermore, we have to think that weak numbers from the
Euro zone would simply be ignored in the build up to the FOMC meeting.
YEN: Weak industrial output readings
yesterday are partially countervailed by very strong
Japanese auto exports and auto production. In fact, export figures from
should keep the Yen in a position to make gains despite the potential negative
impact off the
economy. However, the credit markets continue to express concern over the near
"negative’ interest rate structure in
Overnight action points to an upward bias in the Yen, with near-term resistance
seen at 85.15.
SWISS: The Swiss maintains just as
impressive of an upside pattern, as the Euro, with its very impressive chart
setup. In fact, traders should be a buyer of the Swiss on any decline to 73.75.
POUND: A new high for the move overnight in
the Pound, clearly highlights the Pounds distinct
position against the Dollar. The Pound would appear to be playing catch up from
the early January consolidation pattern and could now be headed to 166.
CANADIAN: From the overnight action, it is
clear that more of the same type of conditions in the
US
will result in more Canadian Dollar buying. We suspect that the Canadian will
post a new high for the move, before the end of the week and certainly before
the February 5th UN meeting. However, it would not be a good sign for the
Canadian to trade back below 65.41.
METALS
OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:
GLD -.10, SLV
-.50, PLAT +2.90,
CP -10; London Gold Fix $369.85,
+$1.45; LME Copper Warehouse
stks
839,900 ton, -3,100 tons; Comex
Gold stocks 2.145 ml, +36,386 oz; COMEX
Silver stks 107.3 ml oz, +3,276 oz;
OVERNIGHT: Asian traders liquidated gold off the State of the Union address
GOLD: The fact that Asian traders took gold
lower because of the hawkish State of the Union address makes no sense,
considering that most of the longs appear to be long off a war tilt. The
fix was higher but that was merely catch up from the
action Tuesday. Maybe the President’s speech wasn’t hawkish enough and failed to
draw a line in the sand, so some February longs are going to exit.
SILVER: If gold fails to provide direction,
that could leave silver under pressure, with near term trend line support coming
in down at $478.8. With the US Fed expected float some concern toward the
economy, we have to think that the path of least resistance in silver will be
down. In fact, on Tuesday the higher US equity market seemed to help the silver
market but today the equity markets look to weigh on the silver market.
PLATINUM: The platinum market rallied on the
State of the Union address, as the President talked about alternative fuels and
alternative engine types for the
fleet and that fosters stronger demand hopes for platinum. The President also
called for cleaner air and that is something that might result in more
international catalytic converter use. After recent gains, platinum appears to
have run out of upside momentum, with the last three session’s consolidation
pattern highlighting less upside progress. Near term support in April platinum
comes in at $631, with resistance seen up at $641.
COPPER: With the Chinese market closing for
holiday, the copper market will have to see support provided by
and US markets. However, with the Fed prepared to suggest that the bigger risk
to the economy is recession and not inflation copper bulls have to be concerned.
However, thus far US economic readings have been better than expected but with
very weak opening indications in the stock market this morning, we have to think
that the path of least resistance in copper is down.
CRUDE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT
CHG to 4:15 AM: CRUDE -27,
HEAT -19, UNGA
-25 — The energy complex is confused as to which direction the next big wave in
prices will be, as the war track still seems to be in place, but timing is still
an unknown. The President referred to the February 5th UN Security Council
meeting as if that might be a key date, for some type of decision.
NATURAL GAS
We doubt
that the regular complex is going to impact the natural gas as much as it has
over the past two weeks. In fact, with the weather moderating and the war
seemingly delayed a little longer, the only thing keeping the natural gas from
an extensive profit taking is the prospect of a record weekly draw on Thursday.