How High Gold?

One day
before Secretary of State, Colin Powell’s speech
to the United
Nations, stock index futures tumbled. Lowered forecasts from the likes of American
International Group

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and Alcatel
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, along increasing threat of war, knocked equity futures down. Tomorrow
at 10:30 a.m. ET, Colin Powell is stated to present “compelling”
evidence that Iraq indeed has weapons of mass destruction. Many traders feel
that this evidence will draw us even closer to war. The week-and-a-half long 
trading range in stock index futures is still intact as many traders are waiting
for some kind of resolution to take place. Stocks also ignored the positive
December factory orders which also shows an increase in manufacturing. At the
close, the March Dow futures
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finished the session down 57 to 8020 after falling as much as 167 points earlier
in the day. S&P futures
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dropped 9 to 849.50, and the Nasdaq 100 futures
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dropped 11 to 975.00.

The dollar’s counter trend rally last
week proved to be short lived as traders sold the greenback ahead of Powell’s
speech tomorrow. A war with Iraq would further weaken the dollar as it disrupts
economic growth, increases energy prices, and lures away foreign investors. Even
news that factory orders for December gained 0.4% vs. expectations for a 0.3%
gain could not help the dollar. The March dollar
index fell 0.83 to 99.29 and fell to 108.590 against the March
Euro

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.

After pulling back for the last three
sessions, treasury futures jumped as investors sought the “safe haven”
of government debt. The 10-year contract
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gained 15/32 to 114 14/32 and the 30-year
contract
gained 20/32 to 112 25/32.

Gold jumped to a seven-year high as
tomorrow’s presentation of new evidence against Iraq could bring us closer to
war sooner. April gold
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jumped 8.10 to 379.90.

Despite news that the Venezuelan oil
strike is drawing to a close, crude oil jumped today as a war with Iraq could
disrupt oil production and increase prices. March crude
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rose 0.81 to 33.58.