How I Saw The Trigger

I might absolutely love a

stock, but that doesn’t mean I’m looking to take the initial breakout.

It’s a well-known technical fact that the majority

of issues (somewhere north of 70%) trade with the broader market. What this

means to me is that there is a time and place for everything–especially when it

comes to trying the classic breakout. Even though the market is in a ‘confirmed

rally’, as it has been for several months now–it is not a green light to take

every breakout that you see triggering. There are definite times within the

market cycle where, in my humble opinion, it makes common ‘cents’ to

take a wait-and-see approach. For instance, if you read

my IT report, I’ve personally gone from raging bull to cautious bull over

the past two weeks because we have quickly moved back into the testing of daily

chart resistance levels. Ultimately, that’s a good thing for bulls. Even better

for would-be bulls–at these levels–is to use a little common sense of your own

when deciding if the trigger is really there.

Case in point, in today’s trade Rofin Sinar (RSTI)
gapped higher thru daily price pattern triggers. For all intents and purposes, any

stock to be ‘had’ at the proper levels was what I like to call, ‘for friends and

family only.’ The stock was up in premarket trade, but the move on the opening

bar would have made it difficult at best to grab on to any stock near the pivot

levels.

The initial move was good to ‘some’, for nearly a

point. No use crying over missed opportunities in my book, your focus should be

on the next high-probability move. Well, and this is just

one man’s opinion–I felt the next move would be, at a minimum, a quick shaking

of the proverbial tree. Again, this probably has more to do with my focus on the

extended nature of the broader market, than anything else. If you read the

reports, you’ll get a good idea of how I felt about breakouts and trading at

this juncture.

I’m far from right on every call, but part of my

edge lies in the intuitive aspect of trading (which probably isn’t really all

that intuitive–more just a potpourri of charts, indicators, the human

element…). But, in this particular case, it served me well. The subsequent

pullback set up a

Taglia Gap entry. Like the breakout plays, the Taglia Gap is

going to perform better in conditions in which the upside is favored–no brain

surgery there. As a matter of fact, in this environment, most likely it will

work better as it is ‘more or less’ something akin to a second entry or ‘shake’,

quite often.

In today’s trade though, I went to take the

‘second entry’ one step further, by ‘playing off’ those traders and investors

that might have attempted the Taglia Gap entry. Now, a perfect entry of 28.91

would not have resulted in a stop loss trigger for Taglia entries, but the

trigger bar high of 29, did result in exactly a .50 loss (reflected on chart

below).

As far as I was concerned, I didn’t start to see

‘my edge’ until nearly ten minutes later, and that’s when our TWA, or

TradersWire Alert went up to our subscribers.

10:00:08

Intraday Setup Alert

From the Nighty

Daytraders Report, and the

Intermediate-Term Report, Rofin-Sinar (RSTI) has

triggered out of a

Taglia Gap, but quickly reversed for .50. This intraday action might provide

the ‘second opportunity’ to trade the breakout on a move above 29. RSTI is up

2.09 at 28.70 on 1.35 times average daily trade.

It wasn’t easy, and it definitely took some risk

acceptance on the part of traders who participated. But, in this lil’ guy’s

opinion–the edge was there, it just happened to be ‘outside of the box.’

Chris Tyler