Is Gold Set To Rally On Monday?

Stock index futures reversed course after early
gains.
A good start brought on by the better-than-expected employment
data was quickly aborted as the focus turned back to geopolitical woes. Both the
Dow and S&P futures ended down for the fourth consecutive session and broke
below a week-and-a-half long trading range. Economic data showed that the job
market at least seems to stabilizing as the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly
from 6%  in December to 5.7%, while non- farm payrolls came in at more than
double what economists were expecting.

However, stock futures continued to be plagued by geopolitical woes with Iraq
and North Korea. Stock index futures were also spooked as Attorney General John
Ashcroft raised the national threat indictor to the second highest level of
“Orange.” At the close, the March Dow futures
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fell 83 to 7857, S&P
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fell 10 to 830.50, and the March Nasdaq 100 futures
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dropped 15.50 to 959.50. 

The dollar index was higher early in the session after the economic reports,
but gave up much of its gains to finish near the lows of the day. The March
dollar index
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gained 0.07 to 99.77. However the dollar was again
weaker against the euro. The dollar slipped 0.00020 to 1.08150 against the March
euro
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Treasury futures gained for a second straight session after the turnaround in
stock index futures. Treasury futures initially sold off hard as the
unemployment rate in January came in much lower than expected at 5.7% from 6% in
December. This marked a four-month low in unemployment. Payrolls also came much
better than expected as the economy added 143,000 jobs besting estimates calling
for a gain of 69,000 job. This follows a loss of 156,000 jobs last month.
Treasuries later regained their footing after the rally in stocks lost steam. At
the close, the March 10-year contract
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gained 7/32 to 114 18/32 while
the 30-year contract
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gained 12/32 to 113 1/32. 

Crude oil jumped to another 2- year high over the continuing threat of a
disruption in global oil supplies. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld traveled
to Rome to gain support for military action against Iraq. President Bush also
called for the UN to impose their resolution in disarming Iraq. Heating oil rose
to a 26-month high amid freezing temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest.

Gold fell for the third straight session. April gold
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fell 0.30 to
370.50. Potential support for the metal could come in at its 20-day moving
average.

Vincent Mao