I think one reason why so many people try to pick tops and bottoms is that
they want to prove to the world how smart they are. Think about winning rather
than being a hero. Forget trying to judge trading success by how close you can
come to picking major tops and bottoms, but rather how well you can pick
individual trades with favorable return/risk characteristics.
Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis (1996, John
Wiley & Sons, New York).