Key Reversal Day?

  • October 21, 2004
  • Mark Melin


Wednesday Recap:
The markets ended the day
little changed — and this could be a significant positive for the market.  The
day started with a gap lower and an attempt to consolidate near the 9875 level
on the Dow.  During this time in the morning the NASDAQ was higher while the Dow
and S+P were lower.  However, without confirmation the NASDAQ’s move to higher
ground was somewhat hallow and bears took control of the market, quickly pushing
the market to test support near 9800.  From here, buyers got excited and pushed
higher to test resistance near 9900, near where the market ended the day down
some 10 points. 


Like the Dow, the S+P looks
like it had a key reversal day.  The broad-based index moved lower to touch its
lower Bollingerband and then rocked higher to close above support, ending the
day at 1103.66 up some .43 on the day. 


Prediction for
Thursday:  I’m expecting the markets to move higher on Thursday.  For
Thursday let’s watch for an early test of the 9900 level, and potentially a test
of the 10,000 level.  If we can hold above resistance Thursday we could
potentially close the week on a strong note.  


Portfolio Strategy: 
Right now we’re delta positive.  If we can start to get a sustained move from
these lower levels I’m going to stay positive and move forward. 

Mark Melin