No Boom In Bonds

Traders flying out of the stock index futures failed to
boost the bond market, as both T-bonds
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and
10-year notes
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were down sharply out of the pullbacks from low they
had been setting up in. Profit warnings from Lucent Technologies
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and Ciena
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pulled the plug on the index futures as buyers
spurned the March contracts, allowing sellers to take hold.
Dow futures
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dropped significantly beneath the 20-day moving
average for the first time in seven weeks, falling more than 100 points in the
session. Nasdaq 100 futures
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probed beneath both its 20-day
moving average and its upward trendline, while the
S&P futures
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are pulling back to the 50-day moving
average, reversing Wednesday’s bullish tail.

Dollar index futures
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recouped some of the earlier losses in
the week, staging a reversal off the 50-day moving average. This move took the
British pound
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downward and possibly starting its second
pullback since rallying off its lows.
Japanese yen
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were mostly flat and continue to languish at
extremely low levels, with the
Canadian dollar
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pulling back following Wednesday’s gap
higher. Euro FX futures
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reversed sharply to the downside,
back to the gap that shot the contract higher one day ago. Rounding out the
group,
Swiss francs
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bounced down after a close above the 50-day MA
and appear to be headed for a retest of Monday’s low.

Energy futures traded in a choppy manner, as traders had
eyes on the news for any information to confirm or deny a production cut from
OPEC. Prices dropped on the release of a planned meeting by OPEC members for
Dec. 28, which would not give enough time to implement any cuts by the first
of the year. Crude oil
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rallied to close its opening gap
downward, but slid off into the close. Unleaded gasoline
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is
continuing to chop around at low levels. Heating oil
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is
forming a narrow range at its contract lows, and
natural gas
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is trying to make a move off its low.

In the softs, cocoa
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, although closing
positive, stalled out today in its rally out of a pullback from highs. Coffee
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continues to rise off its lows, gapping down today on the open, but
recovering to finish in the green.
March cotton
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is now violating the neckline of its head-and-shoulders, while sugar
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appears to be beginning to
offset the losses of the past few days, triggering a move out of its pullback.
Lastly, orange juice
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still appears vulnerable to downside
pressure, forming a bearish tail down in Thursday’s trading.

Corn
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sold off in early trading, but
recovered in spite of not really building any real buying momentum. Transaction
activity was light and range-bound. Wheat
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followed suit,
trading thin and choppy. Soybeans
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were propped up by
news of a large U.S. sale of nearly 250,000 metric tons to an unknown foreign
buyer, and appears to have possibly formed a mini double bottom. Soybean oil
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was down slightly, but has been trading with broadening volatility over the past
six weeks and could be prepping for a run up in prices. Finally,
soy meal
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is settling into a low-level triangle on the daily
chart.

CME hogs rallied off the week’s lows, with
lean hogs
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moving higher out of a two-step pullback from a
double top, and pork bellies
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are doing the same off the 50-day
moving average, possibly offsetting the head-and-shoulders pattern it has been
tracing out. Live cattle
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saw regular sell orders crawl into
the pit, as a least one major meat packer was distributing contracts in the
session. Feeder cattle
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gapped lower and closed weakly as
well, in tandem with the live cattle contract.