Out Of Trouble?
S&P futures, trading unchanged at 1441.50 this morning, need to get above 1446, and not go below 1442, to get out of immediate trouble.
Keep in mind, we’ve had a double bottom at 1438-1439. On the downside, we see 1436.50, a key at 1434.50, a major area at 1429.50, 1426.50 and then 1425.
On the upside, we see 1441.50, 1445.50-1446, 1447.50, 1453.50, 1455, a key at 1458, a major at 1459.50, and then 1461 to 1464, which has been a very pivotal cluster. Yesterday, we spent most of the day above this area of 1461-1464. Then, when we traded below this area, we went straight down.
In the NASDAQ, from yesterday’s high to the low was 210 handles. We settled at 3397. The cash low was 3351, which was 10 points above the summertime low of 3341. There was a certain amount of panic in some of the major stocks, i.e. Oracle
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We are at some very serious extensions levels. In the NDZ, we are 9% below our 20-day moving average. Usually, this will tend to hold around a 13% area, historically — meaning that level has typically signaled a bottom. For the 200-day in the NASDAQ Comp, we are now closing in on -15%. But remember: this is a momementum player’s market. And right now the trend is down. Expect some wild swings today.
For today, we see support between 3385 and 3370, and under that look for a move to 3320. We have support between 3320 and 3305. If they get through that, the next move looks to be toward 3210, which would be nearly double-limit down. So that would be an extreme move. With any close below 3341 in the cash, we are looking for a retest of the 2900-area, which was our April low.
On the upside, we see resistance between 3435 and 3450, and above that at 3475 to 3488, then 3510 to 3520. If the market can get above 3550, it will be very impressive.
The Dow gave back 130 points worth of gains yesterday to settle up 20 points and still staying in our tight range.