Overheard On The Street
Here’s what they’re saying at mid-day:
Peter Eliades, Editor and Publisher,
StockMarketCycles.com: “There’s been an interesting pattern that I have
been watching lately. If you go back to the all-time high on the Dow on Jan. 14,
2000 and use a Fibonacci sequence of numbers, and start there with a weekly bar
and move forward 8 weeks, it would take you to the low of March 10. Then week 13
was the week-ending April 14 high. If you go out to the 21st week on June 9,
it’s not as dramatic or as clear, but it’s a pretty good high. Week number 34 is
pretty clear for the week ending Sept 8th, which was a fairly important top. The
next number is 55 which happens to be this week. The fact we’ve rallied into it
implies that there’s the possibility of a potentially important top here.”
Robin Griffiths, Chief Technical Analyst,
HSBC: “We’re in a bear market, and bear markets always have a special shape
to them technically of a fall follwed by a rally followed by the rest of the
fall. Mr. Greenspan in cutting rates aggressively is trying to get to that rally
phase. But it won’t be a new bull market, it will be the bear market rally. The
reason is that the stock market can respond quicker than the economy. The
economy moves much more like a supertanker, and if it turns a corner it makes
more of a U shaped move. After the rally, the market will have discounted
something that the real world isn’t delivering fast enough, so you’ll hear the
expression double-dip later on.”
Scott Bleier, Chief Investment
Strategist, Prime Charter Limited: “The market’s very mixed without
excesses either way. It’s more of a taking stock kind of day of where we really
are in the economy and the rate drop cycle. I think people are a little
surprised that the numbers really are as bad as all the warnings, yet the
indisputable lore of an aggressively easing Fed has the market strong. Market
internals have been good even before the market turned on Jan 3, and when things
look their worst, believe it or not, it’s really time to buy. And when things
look their best, we’ve learned it’s really time to sell them.”